Amanda Cavill looks at the possibility.
Four of the five seats federal seats in Tasmania are held by the Labor Party with margins of more than six per cent.
They are Franklin, Bass, Braddon and Lyons.
So how could seats that cannot be considered marginal be at risk, and therefore influence who leads the nation after September 7?
Until the leadership change on June 26, Labor faced a major problem.
Tasmanian voters were unhappy with the Commonwealth and state Labor governments, with state and federal polling suggesting all four federal Labor seats would be lost to the Coalition.
Julia Gillard has now been replaced by the more popular Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister but the polling still suggests the swing is likely to be against Labor.
Only the magnitude of the swing may change.
The Rudd government's minority status means it must gain seats to hold on to office.
It will be hard for Labor to hold its four current Tasmanian seats, especially Bass and Braddon.
Tasmania has the highest unemployment in the country and the issues of the economy, jobs and growth will resonate with voters.
Mr Rudd concedes that Tasmania presents a challenge.
"And there are challenges here. Always the product of a degree of isolation from the mainland economy, I understand that. But therefore we've got to make an extra effort to make sure that the economy and jobs remain strong in this part of Australia."
The seats of Bass and Braddon in Northern Tasmania have been switching between the Liberal and Labor parties at almost every election for the past 20 years, and it's on these seats that Coalition Leader Tony Abbott is setting his sights.
The Liberal Party lost both seats to Labor in 2007, when Kevin Rudd was first Prime Minister.
Mr Abbott says unemployment is a key election issue.
"Unemployment in Tasmania is about 2.5 percentage points higher than elsewhere in Australia. If you want Tasmania to flourish, if you want to unlock the potential in the creativity of the great people of Tasmania, we've got to get rid of Labor/Green Governments, wherever they are, we've got to get rid of the Labor/Green Government in Canberra on September the 7th and then as soon as we can, we've got to get rid of the Labor/Green Government in Hobart."
The Greens have no Tasmanian seats to lose in the House of Representatives at the election, and seem unlikely to lose their Tasmanian Senate seat.
Greens Leader Christine Milne has told the ABC despite the change in Prime Minister, she still believes Labor will have an uphill battle in both Braddon and Bass.
"Well I think the Greens will hold the Senate seat in Tasmania with Peter Whish-Wilson - he's done a great job - but I think the interesting thing is that the Liberals' third Senate seat is not secure. People have assumed that was the case and it is not. The polling is showing that that seat could go any which way. So I think Greens are going to do well in Tasmania but I don't think there's been much of a shift in sentiment as a result of the shift in the Labor leadership."
Independent MP Andrew Wilkie is unlikely to again be in a position influential enough to attract the hundreds of millions of dollars that flowed to his electorate as a result of his deal to keep the federal Labor minority government in power.
But he is likely to hold the seat of Denison, a seat Labor held for 23 years before 2010, which he holds by a 1.2 per cent margin.
Mr Wilkie says he hasn't detected a swing to Labor since Mr Rudd's return to the top job.
"Within my own seat I have been very interested whether or not there would be much change since Kevin Rudd returned to the Prime Ministership. I'm not detecting a lot of change in this seat as a result of that alone. So I don't know that much has changed around here. A number of people have raised with me their concerns, one way or the other, about the asylum-seeker issue. You know, people care about a lot of things but at the end of the day people care most about the things that touch them."
With such a finely balanced House of Representatives, Labor will find it hard to compensate elsewhere for any seats lost in Tasmania on September 7.
