South Australia heads to the polls on Saturday, and while the state's Labor government isn't expected to change, analysts are keeping a close eye on the emerging contest between One Nation and the Liberals.
Liberal Leader Ashton Hurn said her party had "left nothing in the tank" on the eve of polling day, but it remains to be seen if the party had done enough to keep voters with wandering eyes on side.
It will be One Nation's first electoral test after the party began surging in national opinion polls last year.
So the question is, are South Australians prepared to actually vote in numbers for the controversial party's right wing, populist policies and desired immigration cuts?
The state's party leader, former Australian Conservatives senator Corey Bernardi, is hoping to pick up at least one seat in the upper house.
He needs just over eight per cent of the vote to do so and is running on a platform that promises to reduce overall immigration.
The party is also eyeing off several regional seats, where they could find themselves contesting three way races with the Liberals and Independents, who have traditionally done quite well in the state.
Controversially, reversing a Howard-era policy against preferencing One Nation, the Liberals have also placed them ahead of Labor on their how-to-vote cards.
Despite this, Hurn is clear her party does not endorse them.
"I couldn’t name you a single policy One Nation have talked about implementing," she said.
Bernardi has hit back at these accusations.
"For the last month, they've been saying we don't have policies, despite having a comprehensive suite of policies on our website," he said.
Any wins this election won't be the first for One Nation in South Australia.
Orange candidate Sarah Game was elected in 2022, but she defected to sit as an independent last year, after she took issues with the party’s "brand".
Incumbent Premier Peter Malinauskas, looking all but assured another term in office, said he would wait until the election played out to assess the strength of One Nation's hold on South Australia.
"I think what really matters … is that serious parties of government have serious policy for the future of the state," he said.
This is also the first election since South Australia banned political donations in 2024, which will no doubt be another topic of discussion once the votes are counted.
What the polls say
Put stock in them or not, opinion polls have seen One Nation edge further and further ahead of the Liberal's primary vote.
The final YouGov and Newspoll results have One Nation taking 22 per cent of the primary vote, with the Liberals taking home percentages in the high teens.
Associate professor Rob Manwaring from Flinders University said these results reflect an "implosion" of the state’s Liberal Party.
"A lot of the result of what's happening to One Nation is something that's happening to them, rather than necessarily the way they've been campaigning," he told SBS News.
He said the Liberal Party had lost voters and "many right or centre-right inclined voters are considering now parking their vote somewhere else."
This is backed by YouGov polling, which found 52 per cent of the party’s supporters saying they felt unrepresented by the major parties, with only 10 per cent claiming to support its policies.
Manwaring said it was unclear if these primary votes would result in seats.
"Minor parties face the problem under the electoral system for the lower house is that even if they score relatively well, 20 to 30 per cent, then preferences might not go their way," he said.
If they are successful though, Manwaring said One Nation could change the tone of South Australia’s parliament.
"If One Nation picks up probably two seats in the upper house … they have an eight year platform [for] their own rather polarising and divisive rhetoric."
Why are South Australians turning away from the Liberals?
The state's Liberal party has burned through leaders and weathered several high profile scandals in recent years.
"The low point," Manwaring said, was when former leader David Speirs resigned in 2024 after he was arrested and later convicted of supplying drugs.
"That's proved damaging to the reputation."
It's a line echoed by South Australian party leader Bernardi.
He said a "deep well of concern about how party politics is failing citizens" was driving his party’s success.
Policies?
Power, health and housing have dominated policy announcements this election.
Labor has spruiked its investments into the state's hospital sector and its construction record.
While the Liberals have proposed a new hospital development, changes to stamp duty for first home buyers and significant investment in road upgrades.
Thanks to One Nation, immigration has also entered the conversation.
Malinauskas said immigration was "not on the ballot," even as One Nation has made it a key talking point.
Bernardi said his party wanted to deprioritise Muslim immigration, and to "cut back" on numbers
The future of South Australia's First Nations Voice to Parliament has also become a central point of difference between Labor, One Nation and the Liberals.
It was established in 2023 and is about to elect its second cohort of representatives.
The Labor government has committed to the institution, while the Liberals and One Nation have both said they would scrap it.
"The one thing I think people want from their politicians now more than anything else is authenticity and honesty," Malinauskas said.
"And I believe that the Voice can have a positive role to play."
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