The Coalition has fractured once more, this time over the new anti-hate laws — but political experts say the split points to deeper divides between the parties, one involving One Nation.
National leader David Littleproud confirmed the split between his party and the Liberals on Thursday morning, saying Opposition leader Sussan Ley put them in an "untenable position".
The internal tensions within the Coalition peaked on Tuesday evening when three National MPs crossed the floor to oppose the newly-passed hate speech law, breaching cabinet solidarity.
Jill Sheppard, an associate professor in politics at the Australian National University (ANU), said this triggered a formal Coalition agreement, allowing Ley to "demand the resignation of the National members who crossed the floor".
And Ley made that decision.
In response to Ley's decision and in solidarity with the three senior colleagues, the entire Nationals contingent of the shadow cabinet sent in their resignations to the Opposition leader, marking a new chapter of division in the Coalition's history.
"She didn't have to do that. She was within her rights to do so, and she chose to do that, and that's what's really upset the Nationals here," Sheppard told SBS News.
What are Nationals 'really worried' about?
Recent polls may suggest that differences over hate speech laws might not be the only reason for the recent split, and another change in voters' behaviour might be an underlying factor.
Simon Welsh, director of research and reputation at political consultancy firm Redbridge, said: "There is definitely a broader electoral problem that I think is fuelling a lot of this."
A recent Roy Morgan poll has shown that while primary support for the Coalition has dropped 6.5 per cent, now 24 per cent, the support for One Nation has surged 6 per cent, now at 21 per cent.
"What we're seeing at the moment is the Coalition shedding votes in significant numbers to One Nation," Welsh said.
"This increase that we're seeing in the One Nation vote will be more so in regional areas. Hence, the Nationals are really worried about it."
One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce, former leader of the Nationals, told Sky News that he welcomes the decision of the National members who decided to cross the floor, saying the One Nation party will welcome them.
'Existential moment for the Libs'
Welsh said that for decades, a main source of support for the Coalition came from "the conservative, aspirational working class voters", but with things changing economically, they're now turning to anti-establishment populist politics.
"Rather than voting on economic aspiration, because they feel that's been eroded, they're voting on grievance," Welsh said.
"The Libs, particularly, will always be compromised because they're also trying to worry about their kind of moderate centrist flank, not just this, this kind of populist flank.
"I think the problem for them is if they think that the answer to the solution is to try and be more like One Nation, I think that kind of misses the point, which goes back to that economic aspiration ... So just splitting off doesn't solve anything for them."
Despite the recent Roy Morgan poll showed Labor's popularity has declined by 1.5 per cent, Welsh noted that the shift in voter preferences could indicate the Liberals are losing more support to Labor.
"Something we're starting to see is for the moderate Liberal voter that sort of think now, sort of your metropolitan middle class, moderate Liberal voter ... is those voters thinking about voting Labor or even sort of independent," he said.
"Those voters are worried about One Nation and what One Nation stands for, and One Nation getting its hands on.
"I think the idea of a major political institution falling over, shouldn't be dismissed ... And, I think this is a real existential moment for the Libs."
Is this game over for the Coalition?
Apart from the question of how voters might change the nature of the Nationals and the Liberals, the Coalition's future remains under question.
This is the second Coalition break-up since the May 2025 federal election, following the parties' divide over net-zero energy policies.
However, there have been fractures before. They split first in 1972 and then again in 1987, both times healing the rift in time for upcoming federal elections.
"Fundamentally, the Coalition parties disagree on large issues ... So these things are gonna keep coming up. When they come up very frequently, it makes staying in the Coalition much harder," Sheppard said.
Nationals senator Susan McDonald, who crossed the floor, has told ABC News that while "a little bit of alone time is always a good thing", she is "very optimistic that we will reform the Coalition as soon as possible".
Some experts believe this split will be temporary.
Pandanus Petter, a postdoctoral research fellow at ANU's School of Politics and International Relations, said this "probably" will not be game over for the Coalition.
"We're quite a long way from the next federal election, I would imagine. After a while they would probably start to work out a way to work together again if they think that's the best way for them to get back into government," he told SBS News.
But he noted that this split might really be about something else.
"You would think that maybe hate speech wouldn't be the biggest concern for the National Party most of the time. It sort of doesn't seem like a, a core issue necessarily."
For some other experts, there might be indications of another type of coalition forming, one that does not include the Liberal Party.
"In sort of purely electoral terms, a Coalition of One Nation and the Nationals probably makes more sense than the Coalition of the Nationals and the Libs," Welsh said.
"It's just hard to say how this, this is going to unfold ... To be frank, I just don't know."
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