Export surge boosts economic growth hopes

Australia's trade surplus has jumped to a better than expected $2.5 billion after a rebound in coal exports, raising expectations of improved economic growth.

Prospects for improved economic growth have been boosted by a recovery in coal exports.

Australia's trade balance rose to a surplus of $2.47 billion in May, from a revised $90 million surplus in April when supplies of the country's second largest export earner slumped following Cyclone Debbie.

Economists were only expecting the surplus to recover to $1.1 billion in May.

Exports climbed by $2.58 billion, or nine per cent, during the month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, as the value of coal exports surged 62 per cent.

Mineral oil exports, led by LNG, also contributed, rising 39 per cent.

Imports rose by $205 million, or one per cent, in May.

Citi analyst Josh Williamson said the recovery in coal exports from Queensland reversed the impact of the tropical storm in late March and early April.

"The stellar surge in coal exports reflected the catch-up in shipments after the disruptions to railways and logistics caused by Cyclone Debbie," he said.

"More so than we had anticipated, coal mines restarted operations quickly, with stockpiles being released as the railway network resumed operation."

He expects coal exports to remain strong in the near term as miners boost shipments to make up for lost tonnage, and prices remain elevated.

As a result, net exports could still contribute to gross domestic product growth in the June quarter, economists said.

"Owing to April's disruptions, it's now going to be touch and go whether net exports drag on GDP growth in the June quarter, but net exports are on track to return to growth in the September quarter," National Australia bank's economics director David de Garis said.

Exports fell 1.6 per cent in the three months to March, dragging economic growth to an anaemic 0.3 per cent in the quarter.

TD Securities strategist Annette Beacher said she expects GDP growth of 0.8 per cent in the June quarter, based on consumer and trade data released so far.


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Source: AAP



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