Falling commodity prices hit trade balance

Lower prices for iron ore and coal are partly responsible for Australia's trade balance falling into the red in April.

Falling prices for coal and iron ore have seen Australia's trade balance fall into the red.

The deficit on goods and services was $122 million in April, much weaker than the half-a-billion-dollar surplus economists were expecting.

It followed five consecutive months of surplus.

Falling prices for iron ore and coal appeared to be the main factor, JP Morgan economist Tom Kennedy said.

"There were price declines in key commodity groups earlier in the year, iron ore and coal, and we thought they were going to catch up with the data at some stage," Mr Kennedy said.

"It looks like we have seen that today.

"But volumes have been quite strong so there's no reason to think this is a volume issue, we think it's a price related issue."

Exports fell one per cent in April, while imports rose two per cent, the Australian Bureau of Statistics figures showed.

Trade balance figures could remain weak over the next few months, Mr Kennedy said.

"Prices for coal and iron ore are down a lot from where they were in December and also January, so I would expect the trade balance, in nominal terms, to be a little bit softer," he said.

CommSec chief economist Craig James said iron ore and coal prices were expected to pick up in the second half of the year after falling in the first half.

"No doubt when you see iron ore prices down substantially as well as coal, it's one of the more depressing influences on the figures," Mr James said.

"But at the same time there continues to be volume increases in mining and energy exports.

"If we took a longer term view, we'd see the increases in terms of output and capacity is going to outweigh short term price falls."

Demand for our resources will remain strong, even if there are seasonal factors influencing commodity prices, Mr James said.

"We do tend to see a pickup in price in the second half of the year and that's our expectation," he said.


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Source: AAP


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