Falling rates fail to boost confidence

Consumers and businesses are so worried about the economy that record low interest rates are doing nothing to cheer them up.

Worries about having to work longer and uncertainty about the economy are making consumers and businesses feel particularly gloomy.

Two new readings on business and consumer confidence have found that despite record low interest rates and cheaper petrol, confidence levels have plunged.

National Australia Bank's business confidence index has dropped to its lowest level in two years, while the ANZ-Roy Morgan weekly consumer confidence index is at a three-month low.

Treasurer Joe Hockey's warning that Australians will have to delay their retirement sent consumer confidence to pre-Christmas depths.

Confidence in the economy for the year ahead and the next five years also fell to historically subdued levels, despite record low interest rates and cheap petrol, the weekly survey of 1,000 people found.

"We suspect that elevated levels of uncertainty about the economic outlook are causing consumers to be unusually sensitive to negative news flow and this is weighing on confidence," ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan said.

Mr Hockey's warning came with the release of the federal government's intergenerational report, which said early retirement would become less likely over the coming 40 years.

The Reserve Bank's February rate cut to a record low 2.25 per cent has also done nothing for worried employers, who are at their gloomiest since the lead-up to the 2013 election, NAB's business confidence report found.

The bank's confidence barometer fell to zero points in February, the weakest reading since July 2013, when Kevin Rudd had briefly returned as prime minister to take on Tony Abbott at the federal election.

"The fall was relatively broad based, suggesting common factors such as political and economic uncertainty are driving this result," NAB senior economist James Glenn said.

"Sure, the cut to interest rates is likely to help, but firms ... they're not really seeing much at the moment."

The mining industry's worries intensified in February as commodity prices fell further, while manufacturers remained underwhelmed and the construction industry's optimism took a small dip.

Overall business conditions, trading and profitability were unchanged, NAB said.

UBS senior economist George Tharenou said the RBA would cut rates again as a weaker Australian dollar failed to stimulate growth.

"Business conditions remain below their average and indicate a loss of momentum in the economy," he said.

JP Morgan's Tom Kennedy said the RBA would be disappointed that its February rate cut had failed to revive firms' `animal spirits', or inspire them to invest and expand their business.


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Source: AAP


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