Former world champion surfer Mark Occhilupo believes Mick Fanning needs a miracle to claim back-to-back crowns in Hawaii this month.
Fanning goes into the season-ending Pipeline Masters second in the world championship standings following his last-start win in Portugal but still some way behind leader Gabriel Medina of Brazil.
The 33-year-old three-time champion is over 3,000 points behind Medina and even if the Brazilian bombs out of the event in the early rounds, Fanning must reach the semi-finals to steal the title.
Medina was an early elimination in the third round of the Rip Curl Pro in Portugal, opening the door for Fanning to keep his championship hopes alive.
The same result at Pipeline would be enough for Fanning to claim world title No.4 but Occhilupo has his doubts.
"It's definitely a long-shot," the 1999 world champion told AAP.
"Gabriel only has to make a couple of heats to seal it. If Gabriel does get knocked out straight away there's a chance but both of them are going to be drawing some very hard wildcards and Gabriel's no slouch at Pipe, he's really good out there.
"It's possible, but it'll be tough."
If Fanning falls short at Pipeline, it'll mean 11-time champion Kelly Slater will remain the only man to have successfully defended the title since Andy Irons completed a hat-trick of championships in 2004.
Occhilupo says that reflects the greater depth in world surfing, particularly with Medina leading a clutch of Brazilians into the championship's upper echelons.
"They've (Brazil) always had pretty big numbers," he said.
"Gabriel is far better than anyone to come out of Brazil. He's definitely on the next level. They try so hard and surf so good, it doesn't surprise me that a guy like Gabriel has come out of the mix there. He's unbelievable.
"It's (the tour) getting tougher and tougher, no doubt. It's hard. The standard's gone a lot higher than it was."
The Pipeline Masters competition window opens on December 8.
PIPELINE TO SUCCESS: The men's world surfing title race explained
- If Gabriel Medina finishes 2nd or better at Pipe Masters, he wins the title
- If Medina finishes 5th or better, Fanning must win the event
- If Medina finishes 9th, Fanning must finish 2nd or better
- If Medina finishes 13 or 25th, Fanning must finish 3rd to win the title or 5th to force a surf-off
- If Medina finishes 13 or 25th, Kelly Slater must win the event to claim the title
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