Australia risks losing 270,000 jobs and two per cent of the national economy if a global shift from free trade to protectionism marches on.
The stark modelling, published in The Australian on Monday, has been commissioned by the federal government ahead of this week's APEC world leaders meeting in Vietnam.
"Trade means more and better paid jobs ... the evidence undoubtedly backs that in," Treasurer Scott Morrison told ABC radio..
"There's not a country that sits around the APEC table for example, or around the G20 table for that matter, that hasn't benefited from trade."
Tensions over trade will expose a key point of difference between Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and United States President Donald Trump when the pair meet in Da Nang.
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Mr Turnbull will push for an 11-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership to be sealed at APEC, without the US, which has withdrawn from the trade pact.
The Centre for International Economics report shows Australian annual household incomes have increased by $8500 due to 30 years of trade liberalisation.
The modelling warns of a 3.5 per cent contraction in global economic growth from any worldwide roll back on free trade.
The Asia-Pacific region would be worst affected by any shift towards increased trade barriers.
"Trade creates jobs, it lifts people's living standards, it improves the functioning of our economies," Mr Morrison said.
