Further signs jobless rate yet to peak

The coming labour force data may have the jobless rate easing slightly, but signs are that will be only temporary.

Glum consumers may have even more to be miserable about as the jobless rate climbs in coming months.

New figures suggest employment growth is likely to be sluggish over at least the next six months, putting further upward pressure on the unemployment rate.

Economists expect Thursday's labour force figures for February to include a modest pullback in the jobless rate to 6.3 per cent after the unexpected spike to 6.4 per cent the previous month.

But the Department of Employment's leading jobs indicator released on Wednesday fell for a sixth consecutive month, confirming that slower employment growth below its long-term trend is now in prospect.

The index has to move in one direction for six months in a row to confirm a trend.

The mid-year budget review in December predicted an unemployment rate of 6.5 per cent by the middle of the year. Some economists see it rising even higher by the end of 2015.

In a speech in Hobart, Reserve Bank assistant governor Christopher Kent said that with little to suggest economic growth would pick up in the near term, the unemployment rate would rise "for a bit longer".

He also suggested the central bank could cut the cash rate again. It's already at a record low 2.25 per cent.

However, there was no lasting impact from its cut in February, with a monthly reading of consumer confidence weakening just one month later.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index fell 1.2 per cent in March.

It follows figures on Tuesday showing a decline in a weekly gauge of consumer wellbeing, and business confidence dropping to its lowest level since before the September 2013 federal election.

"Unfortunately, we have an interest rate lever, we don't have a confidence lever," Dr Kent told an RSL clubs conference.

The RBA holds it next board meeting on April 7.

Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan believes there is a clear case to cut the cash rate at that meeting or the one in May against the backdrop of lacklustre confidence.

"With concerns that sub-trend growth may persist for longer than had been assumed through most of last year, that points to continued downside risks to the outlook," Mr Hassan said.


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Source: AAP


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