GDP building up to be a let down

Business spending weakened again in the September quarter, suggesting the economy suffered a limp economic growth performance since mid-year.

Just months after the Turnbull government was re-elected on a slogan of 'jobs and growth', the scorecard suggests it must try harder to fulfil its pledge heading into 2017.

Recent figures show jobs growth is flat at best, while next week's national accounts are building up to reveal disappointing economic growth.

"The economy has been experiencing a soft patch," was how Macquarie Research economist James McIntyre summed it up.

Business spending, a crucial element of the economy's well-being, dropped further during the September quarter, undermined by another decline in mining investment, which now stands a hefty 60 per cent down from its peak in 2012.

Overall capital expenditure figures released on Thursday fell by four per cent to be 16 per cent down on the year.

"The July 2 federal election, while behind us, may have had a lingering dampening impact upon investment plans," Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan said.

Combined with recent weak construction and retail spending figures, the national accounts are expected to show a subdued pace of economic growth overall, dragging the annual rate below three per cent.

It had been 3.3 per cent mid-way through the year.

Mr Hanlan has halved his growth forecast for the September quarter to just 0.2 per cent following Thursday's figures, resulting in an annual rate of 2.5 per cent.

Even at 0.2 per cent, he believes the risks are to the downside.

Economists will finalise their GDP predictions after a series of figures data for business profits and inventories, international trade and government spending early next week ahead of the national accounts on Wednesday.

Treasury will use the accounts for the basis of its updated forecasts to be included in the mid-year budget review, which will be handed down by Treasurer Scott Morrison on December 19.

The budget is already expected to have deteriorated since May due to weak wages growth hitting tax revenues and a weak growth result will worsen the bottom line.


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Source: AAP



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