GDP tipped to grow despite weak spending

Economic growth is expected to pick up partly thanks to Australia's strong export performance, but uncertainty hangs over consumer consumption.

Australia's economic growth is expected to have picked up with help from a strong export performance when the latest national accounts figures are released on Wednesday.

Economists have slightly raised their forecasts for the March quarter gross domestic product figures after data released on Tuesday showed a boost in exports over the same period shrank the country's current account deficit.

Australia's export volumes rose seven per cent, outpacing the two per cent growth in imports, which will mean a stronger contribution to economic growth from international trade.

After previously forecasting GDP growth of about 0.8 per cent on the prior quarter, most economists are now predicting a rate in the region of 0.9 to 1.0 per cent.

That's up from 0.4 per cent in the December quarter and would bring the Australian economy's annual growth rate up to about 2.8 per cent, broadly in line with Reserve Bank forecasts made in last month's statement on monetary policy.

But even Westpac, whose forecast of 1.1 per cent growth is one of the more bullish, has warned of headwinds including weaker consumer spending.

"Jobs growth has slowed, the housing market has slowed further with house prices pulling back from their highs, and commodity prices have eased a little," Westpac senior economist Andrew Hanlan said.

"Key headwinds remain, notably weak wages growth is constraining the consumer, and the housing sector is cooling as lending conditions tighten."

UBS economist George Tharanou, who revised his forecast to 0.9 per cent, agreed that consumption remained the key uncertainty.


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Source: AAP



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