Rebel MP Geoff Shaw has revelled in his balance-of-power status, helping unseat a premier and Speaker.
But now the tables have turned on the Liberal-turned-independent, with speculation he is about to be booted from the parliament.
However, his fate really depends on the government rather than the opposition, which is baying for his scalp.
When sitting resumes on Tuesday, Labor will try to move to have Mr Shaw expelled for misusing his taxpayer-funded car.
But the government says it is in no rush and is seeking legal advice on how to deal with the rebel MP after he withdrew support for the minority coalition.
There is no point having Mr Shaw run off to appeal any decision to the High Court and possibly escape accountability for his actions, Premier Denis Napthine says.
Mr Shaw has proved to be an erratic member of parliament, and the latest political crisis involving him ignited when he withdrew his support for the government.
A government-dominated parliamentary committee found he breached the MP code of conduct and recommended he repay more than $6800 for misusing his parliamentary car.
But a minority report by the committee's Labor members ruled he should be found in contempt.
Ken Smith, the former Liberal Speaker Mr Shaw helped oust, said he might support Labor in any bid to have the Frankston MP held in contempt, giving the numbers needed to oust the rogue MP.
This ticked off Mr Shaw, who asked the premier for a guarantee of no further penalty, but Dr Napthine refused to be bound by his demands.
Mr Shaw retaliated, saying he would support a Labor move of no confidence in the government.
Rather than accept Mr Shaw's "tainted" vote, Labor pledged to move to expel Mr Shaw, saying there was no place for him in the parliament.
But just how that will happen is not straightforward.
First, there is no deadline for parliament to consider the committee report, and the government has said its priority is to pass the budget.
The Labor opposition also does not have an opportunity to force a motion to be considered by the house.
It can convince the government to move a motion to deal with Mr Shaw, or if the government decides to debate the privileges committee report, the opposition could amend the motion to have Mr Shaw found in contempt and expelled. That move would need acceptance by a majority.
If Mr Shaw is expelled, it will be the first time it has happened in Victorian parliament since 1901.
A by-election would have to be called, and Labor says it could happen as early as July 12 or 19.
Voters in the Frankston electorate will have to go to the polls twice in a little more than four months: once for a by-election, likely to cost more than $350,000, and then a general election on November 29.
But there is precedent for not staging a by-election months out from a general election.
Government sources say a bid to suspend Mr Shaw is the most likely penalty he will get for misusing his taxpayer-funded car, but Labor says the only option is to expel him.
"A suspension for a week or two is an absolute let-off," deputy leader James Merlino told Fairfax radio.
If suspended by the house, Mr Shaw will still receive his parliamentary salary.
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