Germany data raises risk of recession

Weaker-than-expected industrial output could mean Germany's economy shrank in the December quarter, on top of a September quarter decline in GDP.

German industrial output has unexpectedly fallen in December for the fourth consecutive month sending another signal that growth in Europe's biggest economy is weakening.

Data from the Federal Statistics Office showed industrial output was down by 0.4 per cent, confounding a forecast for an increase of 0.7 per cent.

The fall makes it more likely that the German economy contracted in the fourth quarter, analysts said, which would translate into a recession after growth domestic product fell in the third quarter.

The December fall was led by the construction sector, where activity shrank by more than 4 per cent, which could not be offset by a small rise in manufacturing output, a breakdown of the data showed.

The ministry said the auto sector, which has been a drag on the economy because new emissions standards translated into fewer new vehicle registration, rebounded in December as output rose by more than 7 per cent.

The figure for November was revised to a fall of 1.3 per cent from a previously reported drop of 1.9 per cent.

"A positive GDP reading in the fourth quarter of 2018 now looks tight," said Thomas Gitzel of VP Bank Group.

"A positive (industry) reading would have reduced the chance of a negative GDP reading in the fourth quarter."


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Source: AAP



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