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Global mangroves to be submerged by 2070

Rising sea levels may completely submerge mangroves forests across the Indo-Pacific, causing a significant effect on affected countries' economies.

Mangrove forests across the Indo-Pacific could be under water by 2070, though Australian and New Zealand plants are well-placed to withstand the rising tide.

Even accounting for lower-than-expected sea-level rises in the coming years, many mangrove forests have a poor outlook, the study suggests.

Mangroves in Thailand, Sumatra, Java, Papua New Guinea and the Solomon Islands are predicted to be submerged within the next 45 years.

But it's brighter news for other Australasian mangrove hotspots.

"Our modelling shows mangroves are likely to persist in east Africa, the Bay of Bengal, eastern Borneo and north-western Australia," Queensland University Professor Catherine Lovelock said.

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Areas with relatively large tidal ranges and more sediment are better prepared, she said.

The submerging of mangroves could have a significant economic effect with some forests valued at $US194,0000 ($A2.67 million) per hectare per year for their ecosystem services to fisheries, coastal protection and carbon sequestration.

"This is of particular concern as this region is expected to have variable but high rates of future sea-level rise," Professor Lovelock said.

The results of the study, undertaken at 27 sites across the Indo-Pacific, will be published in Nature.


2 min read

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Source: AAP



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