Global warming is set to exceed the most stringent goal set in the Paris agreement 'by around 2040' on current trends, threatening economic growth, according to a draft UN report that is the starkest warning yet of the risks of climate change.
Governments can still cap temperatures below the strict 1.5C ceiling only with "rapid and far-reaching" transitions in the world economy, according to the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The final government draft, obtained by Reuters and dated June 4, is due for publication in October in South Korea after revisions and approval by governments. It will be the main scientific guide for combating climate change.
"If emissions continue at their present rate, human-induced warming will exceed 1.5degC by around 2040," according to the draft, which broadly reaffirms findings in an earlier draft in January but is more robust after 25,000 comments from experts and a wider pool of scientific literature.
The Paris climate agreement, adopted by almost 200 nations in 2015, set a goal of limiting warming to "well below" a rise of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times while "pursuing efforts" for the tougher 1.5 degree goal.
The deal has been weakened after US President Donald Trump decided last year to pull out and promote US fossil fuels.
Temperatures are already up about 1 degree Celsius and are rising at a rate of about 0.2 degree Celsius a decade, according to the draft, requested by world leaders as part of the Paris Agreement.
"Economic growth is projected to be lower at 2degC warming than at 1.5deg for many developed and developing countries," the draft said, drained by impacts such as floods or droughts that can undermine crop growth or an increase in human deaths from heatwaves.
