Growth stuck below pre-GFC levels: IMF

Average global growth is unlikely to return to pre-GFC levels near term, presenting challenges in restoring the sustainability of budgets, the IMF says.

If the Abbott government is looking for a helping hand from the global economy to lift Australian growth and assist repair of the budget it will likely be disappointed.

In a new analysis by the International Monetary Fund it expects potential economic growth among advanced economies to increase only slightly from present rates in the medium term, remaining below levels seen prior to the global financial crisis.

Worse still, growth among emerging markets is expected to decline further.

"Reduced prospects for potential growth will raise new policy challenges, such as achieving fiscal sustainability," the Washington-based institution warns.

As such, global interest rate policy may again confront the problem of being "zero bound" if adverse growth shocks materialise.

The study - included in the analytical chapters for the IMF's forthcoming April 2015 World Economic Outlook - estimates the potential global outlook based on 16 advanced and emerging economies, including Australia.

The key factors behind persistent growth disappointment are ageing populations and only a gradual recovery in business investment since the GFC.

Emerging economies also have the problem of lower productivity as their technological advances catch up with those of developed countries.

Average potential growth for advanced economies is expected to increase to 1.6 per cent during 2015-2020 after 1.3 per cent during 2008-2014 but staying below the 2.25 per cent seen between 2001 and 2007.

The analysis, that also includes Australia's number one trading partner China, sees the average growth rate among emerging economies declining to 5.2 per cent between 2015 and 2020 from 6.5 per cent during 2008-2014.

The growth average among these countries was close to seven per cent in the run-up to the GFC.


Share

2 min read

Published

Source: AAP


Share this with family and friends


Get SBS News daily and direct to your Inbox

Sign up now for the latest news from Australia and around the world direct to your inbox.

By subscribing, you agree to SBS’s terms of service and privacy policy including receiving email updates from SBS.

Download our apps
SBS News
SBS Audio
SBS On Demand

Listen to our podcasts
An overview of the day's top stories from SBS News
Interviews and feature reports from SBS News
Your daily ten minute finance and business news wrap with SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves.
A daily five minute news wrap for English learners and people with disability
Get the latest with our News podcasts on your favourite podcast apps.

Watch on SBS
SBS World News

SBS World News

Take a global view with Australia's most comprehensive world news service
Watch the latest news videos from Australia and across the world