High rates but with a budget surplus

Treasurer Paul Keating got the budget back into surplus in 1987/88 despite the fall out from the global Black Monday stock market crash.

Subdued economic growth, solid exports and moderating inflation.

We could be talking about today's economic circumstances, save for one major difference.

At the beginning of 1988 inflation was running at 5.75 per cent, coming off a 7 per cent high - almost three times more than it is now.

As well, average weekly earnings were growing at more than six per cent.

Little wonder with such inflationary pressures interest rates were at an eye-watering 16 per cent.

Perhaps equally unsurprising, a cabinet minister of the time remembers the interest rate issue as "always difficult".

"It wasn't just the housing rates, it was the interest rates on business as well," John Dawkins said of 1988-1989 Labor government cabinet papers released by the National Archives of Australia.

The government thought the only way to get interest rates down was to ensure it wasn't borrowing as much money itself, leaving more room for others to borrow for investment purposes.

Indeed, budget papers show the Hawke government did get its finances in order, securing a $1.5 billion surplus in 1987/88.

Not a bad effort when you consider Australia was embroiled in the October 1987 carnage on world stock markets - known as Black Monday - which would have hit both tax revenues and consumer confidence.

Taking its lead from New York, the Australian stock market slumped 50 per cent from its 1987 peak to a low point on November 11.

A February 1988 cabinet document said the fall was larger than those overseas.

"Probably because of international perceptions of Australia as essentially a commodity producer with high foreign debt, a large current account deficit and high inflation," it said.


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Source: AAP


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