Ken Hinkley knows the odds aren't good.
The Port Adelaide coach realises AFL history is against his club advancing past Fremantle in Saturday's semi-final.
The Dockers are beaten qualifying finalists and Hinkley knows beaten qualifying finalists rarely lose, at home, the next week.
Since 2000, only two clubs that finished in the top four, like Fremantle, have exited at the finals in two straight losses.
"The numbers say we shouldn't be comfortable at all," Hinkley told reporters at Adelaide Airport on Thursday.
"But as I said before when we played Freo two weeks ago, we're going into the finals series to have a crack.
"And we're going to give it our absolute best and we think our best is good enough to take on any side in the competition. But we know it has got to be on the day.
"The stat ... means not one bit.
"Someone is going to break it and someone is going to change it. Let's hope its Port."
Hinkley didn't have to put a lid on Port's muted celebrations of their elimination final mauling of Richmond, with attention quickly shifting to the Dockers in Perth.
Port fell eight points shy in the same task two weeks ago, with Hinkley uncertain of the significance.
"I don't think it's an advantage, I think it's line ball for both teams," Hinkley said of a rematch so soon.
"Both teams would have learnt something from the game. And both teams would be trying to do some slightly different things in this game that they perhaps didn't execute as well as they did two weeks ago.
"But it's only two weeks ago. We're not going to change too much."
Hinkley predicts another torrid affair against the Dockers, who have beaten Port in seven of the past eight meetings.
"Expect it to be a tough game of footy. Everyone does," he said.
"Yeah, it will go down to the line. It did last time and I expect it again."
Hinkley was a defeated semi-finalist last season, his first at the helm of Port, when pipped by Geelong by 16 points at the MCG.
He believed that experience had helped harden his current crop of players, while liking Freo coach Ross Lyon's appraisal that men won finals games.
"100 per cent correct," Hinkley said.
"That is what it is ... the finals say you have got to be a bit tougher, a bit harder and a bit mentally stronger for the whole of the game.
"And that is what happens at this time of the year in AFL football."
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