The iconic king of the car jungle, Holden, is facing a life and death battle over the next few weeks - its future hinging on the federal election, with federal funding critical for its survival.
Detractors say taxpayers shouldn't prop up the auto industry; supporters say it's an investment in jobs and cheaper than welfare.
In the first of a two part series, Karen Ashford looks at the economics, politics and people connected to Holden's fortunes.
In the backblocks of Port Adelaide, there's a relic of Holden's glory days.
A faded mosaic of Holden's GMH logo is all that's left of a once-bustling 1920s assembly plant: in its day, it was one of five factories nationally but is now a concrete wasteland, overgrown with weeds.
South Australia's Premier Jay Weatherill brushes dirt from the ageing tiles and reminisces about the car marker's economic and social importance here, where he grew up.
"Well Holden was always a big part of our life growing up - my uncle used to work there, he started as a 15 year old and he worked there for 47 years, almost 48 years of his life. So there were always stories about Holden. And it was a big thing to be a Holden worker , they were regarded as some of the better jobs you could get. They were always a big part of the western suburbs. At one stage, Holden actually accounted for 20 per cent of the workforce in western Adelaide. Mum used to work for a car components manufacturer, car fasteners, so it was a big part of life in the western suburbs. Of course I drove a Holden and a lot of my mates did, so this is a very important issue about the fabric of society in the western suburbs."
Holden cars are a part of the national fabric too.
The company started out as a saddle-maker in 1856, and built its first car body in 1914.
A century later it's survived the Great Depression, two world wars and tariff cuts, but now faces possibly its biggest challenge.
The high Australian dollar has hit Holden exports and domestic sales have fallen amidst competition from a flood of cheap imports.
US parent company General Motors is assessing whether the plant can be viably upgraded to produce new models or whether it's the end of the line.
Premier Weatherill says South Australia, and the nation, can't afford to lose the manufacturing icon.
"Estimates are 16,000 jobs going in South Australia, $1.5 billion of the state economy, it's a dramatically bad thing for South Australia if we were to lose Holdens without a plan - that's why we are working really hard to make sure there is future security for Holden in South Australia. And there's no doub t it will be a very different manufacturing sector in the future but what is for certain is it's very hard to build a manufacturing sector out of the ashes of one that's disappeared, but what you can do is transform one and take one to another level."
Holden today has a single Australian assembly plant at Elizabeth in Adelaide's northern suburbs.
Its workers face a difficult choice as the company strives for efficiencies amidst the uncertainty: do they stay or go?
Rocky Labbozzetta is one of 400 workers taking voluntary redundancy.
After 39 years the skills of this toolmaker, maintenance fitter and supervisor are about to be lost to the sector as he considers a fresh career.
"I've been working with people for a long time, so I'd like to try a bit of youth work and become a youth worker or a counsellor. I'm used to talking to people and I'm used to resolving issues on the shop floor, so that's one thing I'd like to do."
It's a reluctant departure - amongst those he's leaving are a dozen Indigenous trainees he's been mentoring.
"It's going to be sad, I've met a lot of good friends here over the past 30 odd years, and although a lot of them have left - I started off as being one of the youngest persons and now I'm one of the oldest people here so it's a massive change."
But others, like spot welder Murray Akehurst, are opting to stay.
"It'd drastically affect my ability to pay my mortgage if I were to lose my job at Holden, also I've just turned 50, so you know, it's not easy to get a job at my age, so if Holden were to close it's be very difficult to find alternative employment."
Holden's workforce has shrunk by two-thirds since he started, but Murray Akehurst is optimistic his job of 15 years can last another 15.
"Oh sure, you know, if we can make Holden a viable manufacturing facility going forward, I see no reason why we can't continue to stay and manufacture cars well into the future."
Ensuring the plant's viability means returning it to profit and securing the investment it needs to make a new generation of vehicles.
Australian Manufacturing Workers Union boss John Camillo says workers have been prepared to sacrifice work hours and entitlements in the past to keep the company going, and they're willing to do so again.
"Holdens are saying that they are losing roughly around about $20 million per year and they're looking at reducing the cost out of the Elizabeth operation. The union's made it quite clear that we're prepared to sit down with Holden and look at the issue in regard to flexibility, productivity improvements and so on to reduce the costs.So we've been working with the company with regards to all those discussions. At the moment the workers are saying they're prepared to do what's required but they want some sort of gaurantee in regards to job security. They don't want to do all these changes then in 2 years time, 3 years time the place closes down."
Workers are due to vote on concessions in early August, but their sacrifice will be meaningless unless governments commit to providing support.
That's where things have become tricky.
The South Australian government has pledged money, but things are less clear federally.
The Rudd administration is in negotiations with Holden over an undisclosed amount of funding; however the Coalition, if elected, has indicated it will review industry support.
Holden needs guarantees before heading to Detroit in September for the crucial decision - yet the timing could hardly be worse, with Australia likely to be in the thick of a federal election.
John Camillo says despite public sentiment seemingly against taxpayer support, every dollar's warranted .
"If you look in regard to co-investment, every government in the world supports their car industry in one form or another. If we're going to be competitive in the international market we need to make sure we do the right thing by helping the automotive industry."
It's a view echoed by South Australian independent Senator Nick Xenophon [zen-UH-FON], who's leading the charge by a clutch of independents to support Australian manufacturing.
"The assistance that the automotive industry is getting is equivalent to a footy ticket a year for every person."
That's about $18 per capita compared with $90 in Germany, $265 in the US and $334 in Sweden.
At stake are not only 16,000 jobs in Adelaide, but potentially 50,000 nationally if Holden triggers a domino effect and Toyota closes too, affecting the entire supply chain.
Nick Xenophon says the local industry needs protection from cheap imports.
"You need to ask what the cost of Centrelink payments will be if these changes tip the industry over the edge. We need an emergency duty or tariff on imported vehicles if the dollar is above a certain level - I think that a benchmark needs to be between 85 or 90 cents, as a benchmark."
It's an idea rejected by Jay Weatherill.
"No, it's a bad idea - tariffs are going backwards, not even the car industry unions are calling for tariffs. We want to move forward with subsidies which are transparent and which will encourage co-investment. So you know what you're getting, the taxpayer can see how much they're putting in - Tariffs are a tax on everyone."
An unexpected blow came in the shape of the federal government's Fringe Benefits Tax changes which Motor Trades Association chief John Chapman fears could deter people from leasing cars as a tax deduction, further harming sales.
"I don't think that the federal government considered the policy implications of what they were unveiling in terms of the FBT changes. It reeked of policy on the run, policy being drawn up on the back of a serviette."
Jay Weatherill admits it's an extra challenge the industry doesn't need and he's seeking a compromise to exempt local cars from the changes.
"Anything that makes it harder is a bad thing. It's a finely balanced judgement, Detroit has to make decisions, Japan is going to making decisions about Toyota, and those parent companies don't need to hear any change in policy that makes it harder to sell cars in Australia. That's something we're in discussion with the Commonwealth about, we have some plans, we think we can turn this around and turn it into a positive and that's what we want to do."
So what does all this mean for the northern Adelaide suburbs that have arguably been built around Holden?
No longer farmland, Salisbury today is Holden country.
It's home to 130,000 residents, and deputy mayor Chad Buchanan (bew-canon) reckons more than 10,000 of them owe their livelihoods to Holden.
"Words can't describe how important Holden is to the local economy, in terms of not only providing jobs, it's absolutely important in terms of all the support industries that are attached to it and also the shops and the trades and the telecommunications . And if there was an impact, if anything were to happen to Holden, it's fair to say unemployment would rise substantially and it would literally take generations to address those unemployment levels and plug that gap in terms of the impact on the economy."
And he says Holden is the strong social glue binding one of the state's most diverse communities.
"We are one of the most ethnically diverse council areas in the whole metropolitan area of South Australia and we're very proud that just about every single nationality is represented in the city of Salisbury. We have a very high level of new arrivals in the city of Salisbury - it's something like 62 per cent of new arrivals that come to South Australia come to our region and that faces challenges in terms of providing services but it also faces challenges in terms of employment. And that's why Holden is so crucial."
It's not just the component industry riding on Holden - suburban shops at Salisbury's heart have long weathered the ups and downs of Holden's fortunes.
For 28 years, Joe Tropeano's been manning the coffee machine at his John Street café.
"If Holden does well, everybody in the area does well. All my girls can do better, they all get a lot more hours and everything, and just in general ... even with the loss of Bridgestone we lost a lot of customers in general - we lost breakfasts, lunches and so on." J:"So when Holden shifted, went from two shifts to one shift did you notice a change in your business?" "We lost a lot of breakfast people in the morning yeah, they all used to come in here after work and have breakfast and such, and now those people you never see any more."
Half a dozen workers bustle behind the counter from breakfast to evening, but their sandwich-making days could be numbered.
"It's very important for everybody, Salisbury. Without Holden I mean a lot of our staff won't be here either, so it's really important they keep going but unfortunately I can see they're not going to be here for long." J:"Do you think that?" "Definitely."
In an area where unemployment exceeds 11 per cent, already busy job agencies fear the impact should the car maker close.
"There is that energy that is Holdens, and when you talk about the north you talk about Holdens. And I think that it keeps the community together and I think that it is something that if we do lose Holden it will have a massive impact on the psyche of the Elizabeth-Salisbury area."
Maddie Sanderson is a job skills retrainer with employment agency PVS Workskills.
"We still have a lot of industry, a lot of blue-collar industry with Holdens, and that has kept the stability there but there's a lot of other change coming through and I know change really can be quite disturbing for some people and it's about keeping together, keeping that community together and moving them forward and allowing them to know it's okay and there is support there and we've always survived in the north (northern suburbs). The north has always survived."
Chad Buchanan is positive people-power can help Holden: Council recently endorsed his idea to replace its fleet of Fords and Toyotas with Holdens, and he's now lobbying for the whole Local Government sector to buy local.
"Well as one individual council the difference will be quite negligible, but there are 68 councils in South Australia. Now if we all work together through the Local Government Association and through our purchasing arrangements that we have, we can actually work wiith Holden and get a tender specific for local governemnt. Then the impact I believe in terms of local government, we'll be effectively buying more cars as a local government sector than what the state government would be doing. We've got $500,000 in the budget to go and actually do that over the next 12 months.
That future is in the balance until September when Holden's parent company in Detroit makes its all-important "upgrade or shut down" decision.
Workers may proudly proclaim the current VF Commodore is the best they've ever built, but hope that the high dollar, cheap imports and political uncertainty don't conspire to make it their last.
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