As the first shots rang out on Sunday afternoon, Francisco "Paco" Chumacero and others enjoying a regular social dance at Bondi Pavilion assumed they were hearing fireworks.
"I never imagined having something like [a mass shooting] in Bondi," the salsa teacher tells SBS News.
Chumacero, who has lived in Australia for the past seven years after moving from Peru, says he's always thought of the country and the city of Sydney as very safe.
"I've lived in Bondi for five years ... it's a community, it's a really good place to live."
That peaceful picture was shattered on the evening of 14 December, when Australians watched in shock as two gunmen killed 15 people and injured dozens more at a Hanukkah festival.
The most deadly terror attack to take place in Australia has raised questions about the factors that may have made the country vulnerable to such an attack, and whether red flags were missed that could have prevented the tragedy.
According to Greg Barton, a professor of global Islamic politics at Deakin University, Australia has historically benefited from certain protective factors that have helped shield it from mass terror events.
"We're an island continent, we don't share any land borders, [we have a] relatively small population, [we're a] middle power, economically comfortable, all of those things are protective factors," Barton says.
"I think the way to understand why an attack like this takes place in Australia is just that Australia is not exempt. Australia is part of a global system."
International context
Reflecting on the circumstances leading up to the Bondi attack, Dr Andrew Zammit, a terrorism and security expert at Victoria University, says the transnational context is most helpful for understanding the threat, more so than domestic politics in Australia.
Since Hamas' October 7 attack against Israel, Zammit says many global jihadist movements, including the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) group and al-Qaeda, have seized on the Gaza war, using it in their propaganda and mobilisation efforts.
He points to an upsurge in IS group-associated plots in Western countries since 2023, with around 20 successful attacks in Europe.
A large proportion of them have been targeting Jewish [communities] ... and even in recent months these calls have been continuing.
As recently as September this year, the IS group published an editorial inciting violence and repeating calls for attacks against Jewish communities in Europe, he says. The following month, a supporter carried out an attack against a synagogue in Manchester in the UK, pledging allegiance to the terrorist group while on the phone to UK police during the attack.
The alleged Bondi gunmen, Sajid Akram, 50, and his son Naveed Akram, 24, also travelled to the Philippines in the weeks before their attack, and this could signal international involvement.
A bridge where two gunman fired on the Jewish community attending a Hanukkah festival. Source: AAP / Dan Himbrechts
But the Philippines' national security adviser, Eduardo Año, has dismissed this possibility, saying there is no evidence the men had received any form of military training.
Naveed Akram came to the attention of Australia's intelligence agency ASIO in 2019 after he was found to be an associate of members of a NSW-based IS group cell. He was later deemed not to be a threat to national security by the agency.
Attack likely planned for some time
While international events are likely to have influenced the gunmen's motives, Jones notes it's not yet clear whether there were any relevant personal factors, such as a family crisis or racism.
But he says people carrying out these types of attacks are generally not doing it based on a "split-second decision", such as anger arising from losing a job.
"Generally, it's something that they've been thinking about for a while and potentially contemplating in order to get themselves to that point where they can do it."
He points to the Philippines trip, as well as the fact that authorities found an improvised explosive device (IED) and a number of firearms, as potential evidence that the attack had been planned for some time.
Did Australia's recognition of Palestine make it more susceptible?
In the wake of the attack, commentators have pointed to Australia’s handling of domestic tensions over the war in Gaza as a potential factor.
Members of the Jewish community, along with Opposition leader Sussan Ley — and even Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — have criticised Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's response to the war and rising antisemitism, with some singling out his move for Australia to formally recognise a State of Palestine in September.
None of the experts SBS News has spoken with believe Australia's recognition of Palestine is a relevant factor in the Bondi attack.
Anyone who thinks that the threat of Islamic State attacks will be influenced by the recognition of Palestine is misunderstanding the threat environment.Andrew Zammit
"We've seen Islamic State supporters target Jewish communities, Christian communities, LGBT communities, Taylor Swift concerts, sporting events — anything that can get [them] publicity," Zammit said.
But he says the recognition of Palestine could be relevant for domestic politics and social cohesion.
Barton agrees and notes the Jewish community has a right to be concerned about rising antisemitism, though cautions against conflating pro-Palestinian sentiment with antisemitism.
He says more should be done to combat legitimate hate speech, which can be "a kind of visible warning of more extreme views".
Mourners at the funeral of Rabbi Eli Schlanger, who was shot dead during the terror attack at Sydney's Bondi Beach. Source: AAP / Mick Tsikas
One of the gunmen, Naveed Akram, was reportedly a worshipper at Haddad's centre and acted as a street preacher for his organisation, according to reporting by the ABC.
Barton also says it's important to recognise there is a stark difference between people peacefully protesting on weekends about human rights abuses in Gaza, and those who are drawn to the extremist ideology of terror outfits like the IS group.
"Some protests involve language that is wrong [and these people should be held to account], but most of it's peaceful."
Were we blindsided?
Australia's terrorism threat level was raised to "probable" in August last year, meaning there is a greater than 50 per cent chance of an onshore attack, or attack planning, in the next 12 months.
In a speech to the Lowy Institute in November, ASIO director general Mike Burgess said the conflict in the Middle East had reshaped Australia's security environment and had made politically-motivated violence more likely.
"[The conflict] prompted protest, exacerbated tension, undermined social cohesion and elevated intolerance."
ASIO director-general Mike Burgess speaks at a press conference flanked by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (left) and AFP acting deputy commissioner for national security Nigel Ryan. Source: AAP / Lukas Coch
"I fear the normalisation of violence and hatred against one community created a permissive environment for similar behaviours in other communities."
While Burgess' comments indicate Australian authorities were alert to the possibility of an attack like the one at Bondi, Zammit says it's also possible some red flags were missed.
He points specifically to Naveed's association with the IS group network as far back as 2019, and the month-long trip the father-and-son pair took to the Philippines.
"There's always going to be the question of intelligence failure, and that always needs to be looked at, but you also need to have a baseline of what can reasonably be expected of intelligence," Zammit says.
"Intelligence is inherently about dealing with uncertainty and is never going to prevent all attacks or even most, and it's always easy to see red flags retrospectively."
'Focusing on individual failures can be unhelpful'
There could also be many reasons for an intelligence failure, including system failures, staffing shortages, lack of information sharing, and individual actions.
Zammit says inquiries into past terror attacks, such as the 2014 Lindt Cafe siege, have tended to focus on individuals who may have "dropped the ball", for example, whether a psychiatrist made the right call.
Focusing on the individual level can be unhelpful and miss opportunities for process change and systemic change, or for understanding what is realistically foreseeable and what's not.
He says other countries have a different approach. The UK, for example, has had parliamentary reviews of multiple attacks at the same time, rather than zeroing in on a single attack.
"They bring a lot more security expertise into it than you might see at a coronial inquest ... so that could be another way to go about it."
Zammit notes the attack was carried out by a father and son, and this may have made it more difficult to detect.
"A lot of the plots that have been more discoverable ... have basically involved a young person with a knife, who posts a bunch of things online before they carry out the attack."
In the Bondi case, the father was aged in his 50s, and Zammit says someone of that age is less likely to draw attention online in that way. He is also more likely to keep his son under control.
Barton notes this is why it's important that Australians pay attention, and not dismiss someone saying something extreme and dangerous as "just crazy talk", and instead let authorities know.
What can we do?
Zammit says there used to be a bigger focus on international counterterrorism cooperation 10 years ago, but this has faded "in this age of great power competition", referring to geopolitical tensions between the US, China and Russia.
An international coalition against the IS group, including Australia, helped reduce the terror threat level by the end of the 2010s, he says.
"[But] we don't really talk about that much anymore, or what more needs to be done there.
"The conversation's moved on to China and Russia, but I think that still needs to be part of our focus."
While there is an understandable tendency to focus on domestic politics after an attack, Zammit says there's less discussion about the movements fuelling the actions of perpetrators — such as the IS group, al-Qaeda and neo-Nazi movements internationally.
"[We need] more focus on ... our enemies," Zammit says.
"What they're doing, how they are trying to undermine liberal democratic societies, and what we can do to counter them."
Zammit says Australia needs to ensure its agencies are adequately staffed and supported, and that information sharing is streamlined.
He also supports gun control reform and notes that many prosecutions of Islamist extremists in Australian courts have revealed conversations about the plotters struggling to acquire firearms, especially in urban areas.
A memorial drawn on the wall of a bridge at Bondi Beach as a tribute following last Sunday's shooting. Source: AAP / Steve Markham
Travel restrictions could be another area to review. In the past, Zammit says Australia often cancelled the passports of extremists before they were able to travel and get training overseas.
"So we've very rarely had attacks in Australia by people who've actually trained overseas, unlike Europe."
'We want to stand up together'
But Zammit also warns against radical change and says that when counter terrorism becomes too politically polarised, official statements appear less trustworthy.
"I think we need to lower the temperature a bit."
He also notes that an important part of dealing with terrorism is resilience and "a society not changing its way of life too much" in response.
Barton agrees that Australia needs to be careful in how it responds.
"The terrorists win if our Australian multiculturalism comes under fire and falls apart and we turn on each other — that's a victory for terrorism. We don't want that," he says.
"We want to stand up together."
Barton says there are powerful examples of brave members of the Jewish community fighting the gunmen, even at the cost of their own lives, and the actions of Bondi hero and Syrian Australian Ahmed al-Ahmed, which remind us that this is not about Islam or Muslims, or Judaism or Jews fighting each other.
"This is about a common enemy attacking all of us."
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