This might be difficult to comprehend when considering just how President Obama and Governor Mitt Romney have been pitching themselves in this campaign but you can blame the system for that.
The American electoral system.
The US take on democracy is structured in such a way that it turns out that the people don't even actually vote for a President. Congress is considered the voice for the general population while the President was intended to lead a “federation of states”.
In a system that sees the state beat the voter, an electoral “college” of 538 unelected “electors” are the people on whom the result of the election hangs. This is why the round up of states is so important and just why that magic number of 270 “votes” is touted as what is needed to win.
It works (basically) like this: when a voter presses the computer button (or machine or marks their ballot) they are actually suggesting to someone they have never met nor probably know exists how to cast their vote for their Presidential choice.
After the election dust has settled, on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December to be precise, these electors travel to Washington DC to cast a secret ballot for the Presidency. So it is possible, but not yet likely, that what seems like the result on the night of the election is not the result we may actually have.
What?
Yes.
To quote: “There is no Constitutional provision or Federal law that requires Electors to vote according to the results of the popular vote in their States”
Chaos! Someone call a lawyer! Actually, not really. Or at least not often.
Still, it's worth remembering that in 2000 the votes for Florida went to the Supreme Court to be decided, which kind of explains how Al Gore received the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election. This was also a system that created the awkward situation of Al Gore, in his role as leader of the Senate, having to announce he'd lost the result of the disputed Electoral College vote.
Business Insider has a clear, but more detailed, explanation of the Electoral College.
But wait, it can get more complicated. Because of the state-based philosophy, if nobody has won a majority of the votes, Congress votes by delegation. Each state gets one vote regardless of the size of the population. Whichever candidate makes it to 26 votes or more, wins.
In what appears to be a very close election in 2012, it's why even the most technical of pollsters can get confused about what is actually happening out there on the ground.
