By early 1996, time was up for an unpopular Labor government and opposition leader John Howard romped to power with a five per cent swing and a comfortable majority.
But at the end of 1997, Mr Howard was looking increasingly like a one-term prime minister.
Between July and September, four ministers quit over various breaches of the ministerial code of conduct and travel claims irregularities. Polls were placing Labor well in front.
The coalition government had responded effectively to an early term challenge, the Port Arthur massacre, overseeing the introduction of national gun laws over the vocal objections of a good part of its own constituency.
Yet gun law changes didn't win the government many new votes, while many conservatives took their vote to the new One Nation party.
The government's first budget in August 1996 featured unpopular cost-cutting measures to repair the deficit inherited from Labor.
By the end of 1997, the government was also heading towards a showdown with unions over waterfront reform.
In answer to criticism that the government lacked a reform agenda, Mr Howard and his treasurer Peter Costello had placed a consumption tax - GST - back on the agenda, making backbenchers very nervous as that was precisely the issue which cost John Hewson victory in 1993.
Cabinet historian Professor Paul Strangio said in hindsight the Howard government always seemed destined for a long period in office. Yet that wasn't at all how it appeared at the time.
"If few would have banked on Howard becoming a long-term prime minister at the end of 1997, the cabinet papers from his first two years in office suggest he headed a government sure of its fundamental values and imbued by a powerful sense of conviction," he said as the National Archives of Australia released of cabinet documents for 1996 and 1997.
"These would provide ballast and direction for navigating a course through the policy conundrums and political vagaries of 1998 and beyond."
Mr Howard, the special guest speaker at the launch of cabinet papers for his first two years of government, said he was fortunate to come to government with a talented team, though just two - himself and John Moore - had previous federal ministerial experience.
"We had a plan, a program and we set about implementing it. Of course, we had a few unexpected challenges," he said.
One was the tragedy of Port Arthur. But before that, the day after the election, he was handed incoming government documents revealing the true budget position and what came to be known as the $7.6 billion "Beazley black hole."
"We realised we had a big job ahead," he said.
Mr Howard said the government fell behind Labor in the polls in 1997 because it looked as though it was drifting.
"And governments should never look as though they are drifting," he said.
As well, the Labor opposition appeared to be on a roll. A factor was the defection of then Australian Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot to Labor.
"Some of my colleagues got nervous. But nobody fundamentally thought that we hadn't been doing a good job," he said, noting success with the budget, industrial relations reform and an overhaul of tax.
"I thought we would win the 1998 election."
Many others didn't.
Mr Howard said he was surprised on election eve when polls placed the government six points behind Labor. He was even more surprised on election night when exit polls also showed the government six points behind.
"We ended up winning despite the two-party vote being against us, but we hung on in the right places," he said.
Professor Strangio said the cabinet papers gave a sense of strong conviction, fundamental values and unity.
"Mr Howard obviously made errors. He has been acknowledged for his great sense of self-knowledge and capacity to learn. If you don't have that capacity or you are not given time to have that capacity, it's problematic."
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