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Improved mood expected at G20: IMF

The International Monetary Fund is anticipating a more optimistic mood when finance ministers meet in Germany later this week.

Treasurer Scott Morrison can expect to be greeted with a more optimistic mood when he meets his international counterparts in Germany later this week.

That's the view of International Monetary Fund chief Christine Lagarde, who believes the global economy has reached a turning point and may have finally snapped out of its "multi-year convalescence".

"Growth outturns in the second half of last year were generally solid," Ms Lagarde says.

"The improved outlook partly reflects a projected pick-up in advanced economy activity - helped by expectations of more expansionary US fiscal policy."

For his part, Mr Morrison can also boast the Australian economy is the strongest among advanced economies, running at an annual rate of 2.4 per cent at the end of 2016, despite a quarter of contraction last year.

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In a report released ahead of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Germany's spa town Baden-Baden, the IMF expects world growth to be 3.4 per cent this year and 3.6 per cent in 2018, compared with 3.1 per cent in 2016.

It is sticking with its Australian growth forecast of 2.6 per cent in 2017 and three per cent next year.

The baseline forecast for the global economy assumes the US Trump administration sticks to its election promises and the US Federal Reserve continues to normalise interest rates.

It also relies on China managing the transition in its economy well and there are no major policy disruptions to trade and investment, including from Brexit negotiations.

But it warns the recent political backlash in advanced economies against multilateral trade poses a threat to a critical source of global productivity growth.

Technology advances and trade are part of the engine creating productivity growth and have resulted in significant improvements in global welfare, it says.

"Restrictions to trade would slow down technology advances and productivity growth more generally, hurting all."

The G20 ministerial meeting is on March 17-18.


2 min read

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Source: AAP



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