The research, which made it to the front cover of Nature Geoscience, found the mid-year temperature of the Indian Ocean can predict weather in Australia's south east, and enable better planning for wildfires, agriculture and even power and energy distribution.
The weather event is known as a positive ‘Indian Ocean Dipole’.
The man who led the latest research, Melbourne climate scientist Dr Wenju Chai, explained what he described as a “climate phenomenon".
"When the east is cooler than normal, the west is warmer than normal. We tend to have higher temperatures and this Indian Ocean Dipole occurs in our winter and spring."
This means the following summer will be hotter and drier than normal, meaning authorities can better prepare.
Doctor Wenju Cai was lead author of a report drawing together the findings of seven eminent climate scientists from around the world.
He said the benefits of the forecasting extend beyond fires and natural disasters to an increased ability to predict energy and power loadings.
He also said the research could influence farmers who rely on forecasting models.
"Maybe we have to plant different crops because a lot of our agriculture is irrigated agriculture and needs water."
Graeme Ford represents Victorian farmers and welcomes any advance in predictive models.
He says farmers in Australia's south east closely monitor weather patterns generated in the Indian Ocean and it is critical in risk management.
Since scientists began recording ocean temperatures in the early 1900s, Australia has experienced four to five positive Dipole events every 30 years. But in the past 30 years, there have been 13.
And in the three years preceding the Victorian Black Saturday bushfires, there were consecutive Indian Ocean Dipole events.
Researchers say it was the only recorded instance of this occurring and provided ideal conditions for the wildfire which claimed 173 lives and destroyed more than 2,000 homes.
"This actually amplified the drying every year until we saw, in 2009, the bushfires,” said report co-author Dr Evan Weller.
While Dr Chai is always wary, he's also cautiously optimistic about the prognosis for this fire season.
"Our bushfire risk is still there but it would not be as high as otherwise when we have an Indian Ocean Dipole in our winter and spring."
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