Investors look to rates and retail sales

The RBA is expected to keep interest rates on hold for the 11th consecutive month this week, while a rise is expected in the latest monthly retail sales data.

Interest rates, retail sales and building approvals will be on investors' minds this week as the new financial year kicks off in Australia.

A slew of economic data is due for release, while the Reserve Bank board meets on Tuesday to discuss whether the time is right to lift interest rates.

Economists expect the RBA will leave its cash rate on hold at 1.5 per cent for the 11th consecutive month.

"While at some point the RBA may talk about exiting easy money - causing a bit of premature excitement in the process, our base case remains that the RBA will leave interest rates on hold for the next year at least," AMP Capital's chief economist Shane Oliver said.

"But for the next year there remains more risk of a cut than a hike."

On the data front, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release building approvals for May on Monday followed by the latest monthly retail and international trade figures on Thursday.

CommSec's chief economist Craig James says while building approvals have peaked they are showing no signs of slumping, with underlying demand for homes still solid.

He also believes the retail trade figures could prove interesting.

"Survey and anecdotal evidence suggest that consumers are spending more, especially on services as opposed to traditional purchases like clothes and shoes," Mr James said.

Elsewhere, Core Logic's home value index for June is expected to show a lift of 1.5 per cent when it's published on Monday, while ANZ's latest job advertisements survey is expected to show a continuation of increases recorded in recent months.

Trading on the local sharemarket could be a bit quieter than usual given the shortened week in the United States due to the July 4 Independence Day public holiday.

The market fell sharply last Friday, shedding more than $30 billion in value amid profit taking and a weak overseas lead on the last day of the financial year.

The benchmark S&P/ASX200 index dropped 96.6 points, or 1.7 per cent, to 5,721.5 points while the broader All Ordinaries lost 91.9 points, or 1.6 per cent, to close at 5,764.0 points.

Investors will be watching for any updates on takeover moves for media giant Fairfax after Friday's deadline passed for two private equity firms to finalise their offers.

Hellman & Friedman reportedly submitted a letter about its $2.8 billion offer to Fairfax's board just before the deadline.

However mystery surrounds whether the letter indicated the private equity firm was planning to push ahead with the offer.

Fairfax reported it was unknown whether rival suitor Texas Pacific Group (TPG) submitted a letter based on its $2.76 billion bid before the deadline.


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Source: AAP



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