Iron ore's dive starts to bite

Atlas Iron's decision to halt production is sending shockwaves through the industry, and there are fears of further fallout from iron ore's price plunge.

Stock image of BC Iron's Nullagine iron ore

The fallout from falling iron ore prices is threatening the future of a growing number of companies. (AAP)

The fallout from plunging iron ore prices is threatening the future of a growing number of companies, with several warning investors of potential problems.

Atlas Iron is the first prominent victim, deciding to shut down its mining operations by the end of April.

That means an abrupt end to contracts for a range of companies, who may claim penalty payments.

Transport group McAleese, which hauls iron ore for Atlas, has suspended trade in its shares as it reviews the financial impact of the shutdown.

Contractor MACA, which receives up to $5 million a month from Atlas and employs 75 people for mining and crushing services at the Abydos mine, said the loss of the work would adversely impact its revenue and earnings.

But it has not changed its forecast for growth on last year's $55.4 million profit, and said it holds credit risk insurance.

Logistics firm Qube and mining services provider Mineral Resources also sought to reassure investors, saying Atlas Iron's decision would not have a material impact on underlying earnings this financial year.

While Atlas is hoping to placate its lenders until a hoped-for price recovery, there is no comfort from market analysts, who are slashing their price forecasts and predicting a rash of collapses.

Citi has downgraded its forecasts to a price of $US37 a tonne for the rest of 2015, down from $US58, and a price of $US40 from 2016 to 2018.

Credit Suisse is slightly more positive, predicting $US45.

But most miners are still making a loss at that price, including the world's fourth largest iron ore miner Fortescue Metals, Mount Gibson Iron and BC Iron, according to UBS.

Arrium and Gina Rinehart's Roy Hill mine still have their heads just above water, with breakeven prices estimated at $US46 and $US43, compared to current prices of about $US47.50 per tonne.

Prices have fallen by more than 60 per cent in just one year.

Treasurer Joe Hockey said the federal government was contemplating a fall to $US35 a tonne, because "there seems to no floor" in the cycle, leaving federal coffers $25 billion short over the next four years.

Such a price would leave BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, currently under fierce criticism for flooding the market, with tiny margins.

Fortescue chairman Andrew Forrest has pledged to maintain his company's production at current levels.

That could be meaningless, though, unless more Chinese miners exit the market, or China's slowdown reverses, as Credit Suisse estimates the major producers will add another 50 million tonnes in both 2016 and 2017.


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