In a year of global political upsets, few political analysts are willing to predict how Italians will vote on Sunday Decmber 4 on changes to the country's constitution.
As a key proponent of change, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has much riding on the outcome.
And he is framing the referendum as a battle between nostalgia for the past and the future.
Mr Renzi says a yes vote is vital to providing much-needed political and economic stability.
"To the financial markets, we say that we have always received the message that structural reforms are the prime asset of Italy's future. I think that's something everybody has always said, everywhere. And we think that structural reform is what the country needs. Italians will, on Sunday, tell us whether they agree with us on the simplification of the constitution or not."
News that makes sense
Your trusted source for staying up-to-date with the world around you. Get free daily news updates and analysis, straight to your inbox.
Mr Renzi's opponents say the changes would weaken the country's senate and virtually guarantee the biggest party in the parliament a majority.
The reforms aim to reduce the size and power of the senate, which currently carries as much weight as the country's lower house.
Italy is one of few countries where expatriates can be elected to parliament, and Australian voters are represented by MP Marco Fedi.
He says the changes are long overdue.
"Why is this reform important? Well, the Italian political system is slow and inefficient. It requires a lengthy process of bills to be approved. And we've been talking for decades about modifying the system. Now, we have an opportunity. It's this time or it will never happen again."
But political journalist Riccardo Schirru, with the Il Globo newspaper in Australia, says there is controversy in Italy over the role of expatriate voters in the referendum campaign.
"Four million people who have a right to vote and who live overseas all of a sudden have become very important, because they could possibly determine who wins this referendum. There is a certain amount of interest, but it isn't the same kind of interest that there is in Italy amongst the electorate, because, at the moment, there is a very strange phenomenon, there's a very strong interest by politicians about the Italian vote overseas."
Under the current political system, the approval of laws can take years.
It has helped give Italy an image internationally of a country where political and financial chaos reign.
But Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan is keen to dispel perceptions of an economy in permanent crisis.
"The OECD assessed that, in 2016, our national debt will decrease in comparison to 2015. I have often read in the Italian, but also in the international, press that there is worry for the debt that doesn't seem to diminish. This OECD statement, however, is a fact that shows that the solidity of the country remains intact."
Most polls are pointing to a win for the no vote.
But most polls also predicted Britain would not support leaving the European Union, and the United States would have no interest in a Donald Trump presidency.
Having pledged to quit if he loses the vote, Prime Minister Matteo Renzi can only hope the polls are wrong again.
