Jobless down but not necessarily peaked

The jobless rate has ticked down to 6.3 per cent from a 12-year high of 6.4 per cent but economists expect it will again drift higher.

The unemployment rate has eased but even the federal government won't stick its neck out and say the worst is over.

Economists expect the fall to 6.3 per cent in February from a 12-year high of 6.4 per cent the previous month only delays a widely expected further interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank.

Thursday's figures also showed the number of people employed rose by 15,600 people in February, 10,300 of which were in full-time positions.

Employment Minister Eric Abetz remains confident the government can keep to an election promise of achieving one million additional jobs over five years under its watch, and two million over 10 years.

Labor says the government is already 104,000 behind reaching the first modest target.

But Senator Abetz declined to put a timeframe on when to expect the jobless rate to ease below six per cent.

"I'm not going to make brave predictions other than we as a government are absolutely determined to do whatever we can to drive down the unemployment rate," he told reporters in Hobart.

The mid-year budget review in December forecast the jobless rate at 6.5 per cent in the middle of 2015, while some economists see it heading even higher before the end of the year.

Foreign Minister Julie Bishop said Australia's free trade agreements with China, Japan and Korea provide enormous opportunities for businesses to expand and take on more workers.

"We don't want a generation of young Australians who have not had the opportunity to gain all of the social and economic benefits that come with a job," she told reporters in Perth.

Labor employment spokesman Brendan O'Connor welcomed the decline in the jobless rate.

"(But) I would think it's optimistic to think that we're going to see this remain or indeed decline over time," Mr O'Connor said.

Unions believe the longer the jobless rate remains above six per cent, the worse the social and economic outlook will be for Australia.

"We are facing a real risk of developing long-term structural unemployment," ACTU president Ged Kearney said.

Commonwealth Bank chief economist Michael Blythe said jobs growth of 20,000-21,000 a month, rather than 15,000, is needed to be confident that the unemployment rate has peaked and is about to move lower.

As such, he expects further interest rate cuts are coming.

"Maybe not in April, but certainly over the next couple of months," he told ABC television.


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Source: AAP


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