Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg could face a trying couple of weeks in the run-up to his mid-year budget review just before Christmas.
Economic growth figures for the September quarter due on December 4, which falls in the final parliamentary sitting week of year, will show whether personal income tax and interest rate cuts are having their desired impact.
Recent retail spending figures suggest not.
The national accounts for the June quarter showed growth had slowed to an annual rate of just 1.4 per cent, the slowest pace since the global financial crisis a decade ago.
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This week's latest economic outlook from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast for Australia only a modest improvement to 1.7 per cent for the full 2019 year and 2.3 per cent in 2020, still below the long-term trade rate of 2.8 per cent.
AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver welcomed this week's announcement by the Morrison government that it is bringing forward around $1.8 billion in infrastructure projects.
But he calculates the extra stimulus equates to just 0.1 per cent of GDP over 18 months and not enough to have a significant impact on the economy.
"While the treasurer indicated the government is always looking for opportunities to cut taxes a bring forward of personal tax cuts in next month's mid-year budget review looks unlikely," Dr Oliver said in a note to clients.
That will leave pressure on the Reserve Bank to cuts the cash rate even further, which already stands at a record low 0.75 per cent.
"We still have the next move pencilled in for next month as the alternative means waiting till February, which is too long," Dr Oliver said.
