Before the first vote is even cast in Kosovo's snap election on Sunday, experts predict it is unlikely to end the political crisis that has been gripping Europe's youngest country for almost a year.
The Balkan nation has been politically deadlocked since an inconclusive vote in February, which Prime Minister Albin Kurti's Vetëvendosje (VV) party won but without enough seats to form a government.
After months of wrangling in a stalled parliament, the caretaker prime minister is going back to the electorate in a vote that analysts say will change very little.
"I think that the December 28 elections will not bring any clarity," economist Mehmet Gjata said as he predicted Kurti's party would come out on top again.
Political analyst Fatime Hajdari agreed that "chances were high" that VV would secure the most votes, but said little else was clear.
Albin Kurti's unlikely odds
While experts aren't betting on a conclusive end to the deadlock, if anyone can secure a majority, it's likely to be Kurti.
His party swept to power in 2021 in the largest electoral victory since the country's independence from Serbia in 2008, taking over 50 per cent of the vote.
From a student radical to a political prisoner — a past that has seen him dubbed Kosovo's Che Guevara — Kurti's long path to the prime ministership has made him one of the most recognisable and influential politicians in Kosovo.
His blend of nationalism and a reform agenda has proven popular in a country whose sovereignty is still contested by Serbia, more than two decades after its war for independence ended.
Albin Kurti has been prime minister of Kosovo since 2021. Source: Getty / Anadolu
"I'm afraid that the current political crisis will repeat itself, because VV will not get more than 50 per cent of the votes," the economist said. "We will have no winner again."
The largest opposition parties have refused to join a Kurti coalition, all but assuring a fragmented parliament.
The only realistic challenge to VV would be "cooperation" between the three major opposition parties, former foreign minister and opposition candidate Enver Hoxhaj said.
"I think that only they can offer stability," Hoxhaj said.
Kosovo's other leadership contenders
Bedri Hamza
Bedri Hamza, a former central bank governor and newly elected president of the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), is seen as Kurti's strongest challenger.
Born out of a guerrilla movement during the war against rule from Belgrade, the PDK dominated Kosovo's political scene for years, riding the wave of wartime popularity.
However, its influence gradually waned as the country moved beyond the conflict.
The mayor of South Mitrovica, Bedri Hamza (fourth from the right), is seen as Albin Kurti's strongest challenger. Source: Getty / Pierre Crom
Lumir Abdixhiku
Lumir Abdixhiku is the youngest candidate for prime minister but leads the country's oldest political party, the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK).
The 42-year-old economist was an academic focusing on tax evasion in transition economies before entering politics and serving as Kosovo's infrastructure minister.
Abdixhiku also spent several years as a newspaper columnist, penning the well-known "Letters from Limbo" column in the daily Koha Ditore.
Lumir Abdixhiku has declared that the LDK would offer "a dignified and European government" if it wins the upcoming elections. Source: Getty / Erkin Keci/Anadolu
Now the third-largest party in parliament, the LDK could play kingmaker in these elections, as both left and right seek its support for a coalition.
Crisis has caused 'colossal' economic damage
Without a parliament, key international agreements have not been ratified, putting hundreds of millions of euros in assistance funds at risk.
Two national polls and a local election have cost one of Europe's poorest nations at least 30 million euros ($52.7 million) this year.
Over a dozen government institutions and agencies have also been left leaderless, as the mandates of their managers expired without new ones being appointed.
Gjata said "colossal damage" had been done to the economy by divided lawmakers over the past months.
Former foreign minister and opposition candidate Enver Hoxhaj has said the only realistic challenge to Vetëvendosje would be "cooperation" between the three major opposition parties. Source: Getty / Erkin Keci/Anadolu Agency
While lawmakers bickered, the cost of the crisis would be felt by the Balkan nation's citizens, Hajdari warned.
"That is precisely why Kosovo needs a stable and functional government that would focus on development and welfare."
Share
