Limp wages growth for those still in work

Wages growth is at its slowest pace since the late 1990s amid flat employment growth and rising unemployment.

For all the recent political hoohah about labour costs hurting industry and being a factor behind high-profile job losses this year, data this week tells quite a different story.

Employment Minister Eric Abetz ruffled a few feathers last month by warning that Australia was on the verge of a "wages explosion" that would push thousands of people out of work if employers and unions didn't take a responsible line in wage agreements.

Unions were "gobsmacked" by the senator's suggestion, and Assistant Treasurer Arthur Sinodinos seemingly contradicted his colleague within hours, saying wage growth was likely to remain subdued.

This week's figures indicate Sinodinos is closer to the mark.

The wage price index - the Reserve Bank's preferred measure of wages growth - showed an annual rate of 2.6 per cent in the December quarter, its slowest pace since the figures were first compiled in 1997.

Opposition employment spokesman Brendan O'Connor said Abetz and Prime Minister Tony Abbott are either out of touch or deliberately misleading Australians with their claims on wages.

"While there is no doubt some parts of our economy are doing it tougher than others, Mr Abetz has not been able to substantiate his claims that wages earned by hard-working Australians are spiralling out of control," he said.

Commonwealth Bank senior economist John Peters says the recent chatter about the potential for a 1970s wages breakout looks a "little out of touch" with the reality of current labour market conditions.

"The highly regulated and centralised 1970s wages determination system was a far different species from today's very deregulated and decentralised system in which most workers have precious little real pricing power," he said.

Economists said the benign wages numbers should come as little surprise given there has been barely any employment growth in the past year, during which the unemployment rate hit six per cent for the first time in a decade.

The figures also suggest that wages have gone backwards in the past year in real terms, given the rate of inflation is running at 2.7 per cent.

However, those employees working under enterprise bargaining agreements could be slightly better off.

As of the September quarter 2013, wages under collective agreements were growing at 3.5 per cent.

These deals can always be sweetened by other terms and conditions, but the wages component itself is well below the level normally considered a threat to inflation - 4.5 per cent.

Indeed, recent jobs and wages data were pretty much what the central bank had been anticipating.

In the RBA's minutes of its February 4 board meeting, released this week, it conceded the December quarter inflation result was higher than it expected, but slightly lower wage growth was expected to help keep domestic cost pressures contained over the medium term.

It also said forward indicators of labour demand, such as vacancies and job advertisements, had shown signs of stabilising in recent months, but remain at levels consistent with moderate employment growth in the months ahead.

Barclays Australia economist Kieran Davies says there are likely to be more job losses in mining and related services as major projects draw to completion.

"This poses a challenge for an already weak labour market," he says.

However, a sharp pick-up in business surveys, particularly in confidence, suggests the rest of the economy could be recovering much more quickly than assumed and could have unemployment falling later this year, he says.

The downside is that it could mean the RBA raises the cash rate sooner than Davies' prediction of early 2015.

Conversely, Westpac chief economist Bill Evans is concerned that talk of interest rate rises will only add to fading consumer confidence as anxiety over job security grows, and undermine economic growth.

As such, he still thinks rate cuts are more likely than increases.


4 min read

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Updated

Source: AAP


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