Low CPI to keep rates cut on the table

Cheap petrol is expected to have played a major role in keeping a lid on inflation in the March quarter, adding to the chances of a rate cut.

A petrol pump.

Cheap petrol is expected to have played a major role in limiting inflation in the March quarter. (AAP)

Falling petrol prices are expected to have kept inflation at record lows at the start of the year, increasing the chance of a Reserve Bank interest rate cut.

The consumer price index is forecast to have stayed at a 0.2 per cent pace for the second quarter in a row in the March quarter, the slowest rate in two years, an AAP survey of 15 economists showed.

The annual rate of inflation is forecast to be 1.3 per cent, the weakest pace in almost three years and well below the RBA's two to three per cent target band.

National Australia Bank senior economist Spiros Papadopoulos said a sharp fall in petrol prices in January to below $1 a litre in some cities was the main drag on inflation.

"Petrol prices will likely also fall significantly in the second quarter, meaning another low headline CPI outcome is in prospect," he said.

Mr Papadopoulos said low inflation will allow the RBA to cut the cash rate to boost economic growth.

"With little inflationary pressure on the horizon, the RBA can afford to be more aggressive in its actions to boost the outlook for economic activity and employment," he said.

However, JP Morgan Australia chief economist Stephen Walters said another weak inflation outcome might not be enough to make a May rate cut a certainty.

Jobs figures out last week showed a surprise fall in the unemployment rate to 6.1 per cent and slashed market expectations for a May cut to 57 per cent from 76 per cent the day before.

"Benign inflation will leave the door open to near term policy easing, but whether board members step through that door as soon as the May board meeting has become more difficult to predict," Mr Walters said.

He added that he is certain that the RBA will cut the cash rate by another quarter of a percentage point some time in the coming months.

The median forecast for underlying inflation, which excludes volatile price movements such as petrol and fruit and vegetables, is 0.55 per cent in the March quarter and 2.25 per cent over the year to March.


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Source: AAP


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