Low inflation gives RBA rate options

Inflation pressures remain benign, even with a jump in petrol prices during the June quarter.

The Reserve Bank building

(AAP) Source: AAP

Hopes for a pick-up in economic growth next year may yet prove premature - a worry for job seekers and a federal government trying to get the budget back in order.

New figures show that inflation remains extremely benign, leaving the Reserve Bank scope to cut the cash rate again if the economy doesn't perk up.

However, RBA governor Glenn Stevens has told economists he believes the central bank has got the "balance right" in terms of monetary policy at this time.

"The question of whether they might be reduced further remains, as I have said before, on the table," he said in an address to the Anika Foundation on Wednesday.

The latest consumer price index showed inflation rising by 0.7 per cent in the June quarter to an annual rate of 1.5 per cent, comfortably below the RBA's two to three per cent inflation target band.

A 12 per cent jump in petrol prices was largely to blame for the increase in the quarter.

Underlying measures of inflation, that strip out volatile prices movements, were equally benign.

RBC Capital Markets head of economics Su-Lin Ong says the data will not be a trigger for easing interest rates further.

"But rather (it) gives the RBA scope to move if activity disappoints," she said in a note to clients.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity three to nine months in the future, suggests the economy is losing momentum after a promising start to 2015 and will likely to continue to struggle below its long-term average.

"A lack of momentum going into 2016 might start to question the generally held view that 2016 will be a better year than 2014 and 2015," Westpac chief economist Bill Evans said.

Mr Stevens believes there should be a discussion over whether the 3.0 to 3.25 per cent growth rate average that has been assumed for many years is now lower and that in fact the economy is actually travelling closer to trend.

That might be one reason why employment outcomes have been better than expected.

However, other data released on Wednesday suggested the demand for workers has come off the boil.

The Department of Employment's latest vacancy report showed job advertisements on the internet declined 0.1 per cent in June to be 1.7 per cent lower over the year.


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Source: AAP


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