The Reserve Bank, faced with inflation that has undershot its forecasts, may signal a longer pause in its tightening cycle this week and a lower peak when interest rates do rise.
Governor Graeme Wheeler will keep the official cash rate at 3.5 per cent when he releases the monetary policy statement on Thursday, according to all 12 economists in a Reuters survey.
He may signal a longer wait before raising interest rates via the bank's projected path for 90-day bank bills.
Mr Wheeler made no reference to raising interest rates in his last review on October 30, saying only that "a period of assessment remains appropriate before considering further policy adjustment".
He had the benefit of third-quarter consumer price index data in October that showed annual inflation had slowed more than expected to 1 per cent, the bottom of the bank's target range and 30 basis points below its forecast.
Since then the price of oil has fallen and dairy prices have declined.
"We think it will now take until late 2015 before the RBNZ gets that sign of a pick-up inflation pressures that will prompt it to move," said Nick Tuffley, chief economist at ASB.
"We now expect the RBNZ will keep the OCR on hold until December 2015, with one further OCR increase beyond that for an OCR peak of 4 per cent in March 2016."
Mr Tuffley said lower oil prices, which have slid 38 per cent this year, will keep headline inflation down and dampen inflation expectations.
Dominick Stephens, Westpac chief economist, expects Mr Wheeler will say both inflation and the OCR will eventually rise and the currency remained too high.
"The hiking bias has been weakened but not eliminated," he said.
Dairy product prices sank to the lowest level since August 2009 in last week's GlobalDairyTrade auction and dairy also helped knock the nation's terms of trade down from a 40-year high in the third quarter.
Economists expect Fonterra to lower its milk payout forecast this month, from last season's record payout, reducing the stimulus to the broader economy.
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