(Transcript from SBS World News Radio)
Despite predictions of another dry season, farmers in Victoria's wheat belt are counting on good advice, experience and technology to improve this year's crop yields.
Luke Waters has the story.
(Click on the audio tab above to hear the full report)
Third generation grain farmer Brad Martin grows crops on about 1,800 hectares on the family farm in Victoria's southern Mallee.
Mr Martin says it's important to remain optimistic but memories of a disastrous 2014 are difficult to avoid.
"The hardest part is you're pretty much watching your crops die in front of your eyes day by day and you know that it's not going to be good but the full ramifications obviously don't hit until after harvest."
In Victoria's wheat belt, the weather bureau's forecast of an El Nino is far from welcome.
El Nino events usually mean a prolonged dry spell in this region, but Mr Martin says the locals are resilient.
"El Ninos have happened before (and) it doesn't always mean there's going to be a widespread drought.
In some areas of the southern Mallee, last year's annual rainfall was about 60 mililitres below average.
While it might not sound like much, for the average farm in the district it can mean the difference between a $250,000 loss or a profit exceeding half a million dollars.
Chris Souness runs a local *cropping group and says the yields aren't determined entirely by rainfall.
"You need to be aware of those, however in the end you really have to focus on what you can control. The research and development is going to be the key - getting that innovation in the paddock, getting it adopted as soon as possible."
It's a philosophy embraced by Patchewollick farmer Jamie Frankel.
He's diversified into legumes and lupins, instead of the traditional staple crops of wheat and barley.
He says he also pre-sells some grains and uses GPS guidance to preserve paddocks and improve yields.
"We'll shift it across from one year to the next so we're not seeding right on a straw row from last year in the inter-row which gives it a good environment for the new seedlings to emerge and come up through the soil."
But technology can only go so far - the eyes of the district's farmers will unavoidably remain on the sky.
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