March rate move less clear cut

The minutes from the latest Reserve Bank board meeting suggest the central bank is considering just one interest rate cut at this stage.

Economists will continue to dig over the entrails of the minutes from the Reserve Bank's latest board meeting to gauge the likelihood of an interest rate cut in March.

Given the amount of material the central bank has released since the rate cut at the February meeting, as well as an appearance by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens in front of federal politicians last Friday, it was widely expected the minutes would contain nothing new.

Not so.

The last paragraph of the minutes released on Tuesday show the board was tossing up whether to cut rates in February or at the following meeting in March.

In the event, it moved early.

This gave the RBA the opportunity to explain its reasoning for change, after 18 months of stability, through its quarterly monetary policy statement that was released just days later.

It suggests the RBA was banking on only one rate cut at this stage.

Still, reports this week show that confidence remains limp, one factor behind the February rate cut.

Consumer confidence slipped to a six-month low in the wake of the recent spike in the unemployment rate, while views on the economic outlook among small businesses have weakened for four quarters in a row.


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Source: AAP


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