Markets focused on US-China, not election

Developments in trade talks between the US and China are expected to continue to overshadow the federal election for Australian financial markets.

A trader at the New York stock exchange

Economists say US/China talks are more significant to Australian investors than federal election (AAP)

Australian investors are more concerned about the US-China trade dispute than the federal election.

CommSec chief economist Craig James said the election campaign is being watched closely but none of the policy announcements have been significant enough to move the broader financial market.

A clear election result would be expected to boost the Australian sharemarket, but Mr James noted the US-China trade talks are dominating market attention globally.

"It's more the resolution of the uncertainty that sees markets start to move higher in the days after an election," he told AAP.

"We do know that the US-China trade negotiations are the big driver of global markets and are having an influence here in Australia."

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver also believed the usual post-election bounce for shares may not play out this year.

Dr Oliver said Australian stocks have taken their cue from global markets in the lead-up to the election, overshadowing any nervousness about a possible change in government.

"It may well be the case that any reaction to a change in government, if there is one, would actually occur after the election," he told AAP.

"If Labor were to win you might actually see the nervousness kick in. You may not get that post-election rally that we often see."

Dr Oliver said Labor's tax policies such as proposed changes to franking credits, capital gains tax and negative gearing would be the main reason for any nervousness among investors.

While the polls have narrowed, economists said the composition of the Senate will be key to whether Labor or a returned coalition can get their policies passed into law.

"I think what is very, very clear to investors and traders is that it doesn't really matter what party wins the lower house, the state of the upper house is going to be all-important as to whether any measures actually go through or not," Mr James said.

RBC Capital Markets chief economist Su-Lin Ong said neither major party is likely to control the Senate, and even a Labor/Greens block will probably need several additional crossbenchers to pass legislation.

"The coalition may struggle to pass expansions to the latter stages of their personal income tax agenda, just as Labor may not be able to pass its franking credits and housing-related taxation policies without some watering down," she said in a research note.

"Ultimately, factors beyond the control of either major party will probably exert far more influence on Australian dollar markets over the next few weeks, including how US-China trade talks continue to play out and key Australian labour market data."


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Source: AAP

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Markets focused on US-China, not election | SBS News