May cut expected as RBA holds fire again

Economists say it's a matter of when, not if, the Reserve Bank will cut interest rates to new record lows.

rba

File. (AAP)

The Reserve Bank has once again defied expectations by avoiding another interest rate cut, but economists insist the razor is being sharpened for just the right moment.

The official interest rate was kept unchanged at a record low 2.25 per cent for a second straight month, though the RBA indicated another cut remains on the table.

The board judged it appropriate to hold rates steady "for the time being" but "further easing of policy may be appropriate over the period ahead".

"The board will continue to assess the case for such action at forthcoming meetings," governor Glenn Stevens said.

It has now been 53 months without an official rate rise, the longest period of rate relief since the 1990s, according to mortgage broker network 1300HomeLoan.

Economists insist another cut is on the way, with the RBA said to be waiting for March quarter inflation data and its own revised growth and inflation forecasts before cutting in May.

"The RBA would no doubt be discussing another rate cut - it's more a tactical decision of when to cut rates, rather than if," CommSec economist Savanth Sebastian said.

"The RBA is tactically thinking, `what's the greatest bang for your buck when it comes to a lift in confidence levels?'

"They may feel that cutting next month, after inflation figures are released and just before the federal budget, might be a better outcome to inspire confidence rather than cutting now."

Mr Sebastian said Tuesday's call would have been a "very, very close one", given the continued strength of the Australian dollar in the face of collapsing iron ore prices.

The RBA's decision not to cut sent the Australian dollar skyrocketing, from below 76 US cents to above 77 US cents within an hour.

ANZ senior economist Riki Polygenis said the RBA had made it clear that booming property prices in some markets would not stop it from cutting rates again, with the central bank pointing out that growth in investor lending did not appear to be picking up.

She said the RBA's use of the phrase "for the time being" was typically followed by a rate change.

"We're still expecting a further cut, most likely at the May meeting," Ms Polygenis said.

Citi economists said the depreciation of the Australian dollar in recent months may be keeping the RBA on hold - but not for much longer.

"If our analysis is correct, then the RBA may be of the view that the currency is finally starting to do more of the heavy lifting in rebalancing the economy," they said.

"Even if the Australian dollar is starting to support growth, we believe further stimulus is needed given the magnitude of the headwinds already in place from falling mining investment and commodity prices, and we expect cuts in May and August."

Tuesday's decision by the RBA was slammed by the Housing Industry Association, with chief economist Harley Dale saying the RBA "should just get on and do it".


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