May rate cut looks to be the last

The Reserve Bank is still widely expected to cut the cash rate on Tuesday, but the chances of any more reductions beyond that are very slim.

Pedestrians are seen walking past the Reserve Bank of Australia

(AAP) Source: AAP

The Reserve Bank is expected to make only one more interest rate cut in the foreseeable future and it's mostly likely to happen on Tuesday.

Twelve out of the 15 economists surveyed by AAP expect the RBA to cut the cash rate to a new record low of two per cent at its May board meeting, after the bank made a similar reduction in February.

All but three of them say the interest rate won't go any further below two per cent for the foreseeable future.

After the RBA failed to cut the cash rate in April, the futures market was pricing in an almost 100 per cent chance of an interest rate cut in May.

However, that changed after the March unemployment rate fell to 6.1 per cent, surprising markets and sent to pricing for a May cut plummeting to as low as 50 per cent chance in recent days.

The National Australia Bank last week changed their interest rate prediction for May, because of the recent flow of better Australian economic data.

It is now expecting the next cut by the Reserve Bank to be in August.

Chief economist Alan Oster said record low interest rates and the falling Australian dollar have helped the non-mining sectors of the economy improve in the past year.

"This is evidence that prior rates cuts are continuing to gain some traction," he said.

Mr Oster expects economic growth to improve to an average annual rate of three per cent in the year ahead and has revised his forecast for unemployment to peak at 6.4 per cent, from 6.7 per cent.

"Our forecast remains for a rising unemployment rate, albeit to a lower peak, which makes it likely they will still need to cut again," he said.

JP Morgan Australia chief economist Stephen Walters expects the RBA to cut on Tuesday but says it will be a close call.

"Most of us agree the case for easier policy is persuasive; all we really are bickering over is the timing," he said.

"The latest domestic data does show tentative signs of improvement, but it is early days."

UBS economists Scott Haslem and George Tharenou expect one more rate cut, saying the RBA is reluctant to cut because the already record low interest rate is working its way through the economy.


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Source: AAP


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