Morrison builds, hopes jobs will come

The budget focuses on a tax plan designed to boost growth and jobs but the likely effect is small and long delayed.

If you build it they will come - that's the philosophy behind Scott Morrison's jobs and growth plan.

What he's building is a different tax system.

And what he expects to come is jobs.

In his budget speech, Mr Morrison said Australia faced challenges.

"This Budget is a practical, targeted and responsible economic plan that meets these challenges by clearing the way for jobs and growth, in a stronger, more diversified new economy," he said.

In other words, the plan is no so much creating jobs, but getting out of the way for the private sector for whenever it gets around to it.

But the estimated impact of the tax plan can hardly be accused of being wildly optimistic.

The budget papers predict the tax measures in the budget will boost gross domestic product by one per cent over the long run.

That's not one per cent per year. Just one per cent.

Over the long run - say, 20 years - that would add just one twentieth of a percentage point to annual GDP growth.

That amounts to a bit less than what economists would refer to as a hill of beans.

That's partly because changes to company tax - or enterprise tax as Mr Morrison referred to it in his speech, possibly in view of the widespread public antipathy to company tax cuts - affect economic activity with a delay.

Treasury research suggests about half the effect on business investment comes through in seven to 10 years, with the full effect taking 20 to 30 years.

The faster pace of business investment flows through to higher labour productivity which, the theory says, boosts wages and encourages people to stay in the labour market.

The combination of increased productivity and more available workers (who, the theory assumes, will all get jobs) is what boosts GDP.

There's another problem, besides the long delay: the same research suggests the biggest bang for the tax cut buck comes through big businesses with an ability to move their capital between countries.

The effect on small businesses is more muted, even insignificant.

But the government's plan gives the cuts to small businesses first.

So don't expect a miracle.


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3 min read

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Source: AAP



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