Nationals set to take NSW Independents' seats

Opinion polls are pointing to the Nationals regaining the New South Wales electorates of New England and Lyne.

Nationals set to take NSW Independents' seatsNationals set to take NSW Independents' seats

Nationals set to take NSW Independents' seats

Opinion polls are pointing to the Nationals regaining the New South Wales electorates of New England and Lyne following the retirements of the Independents, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott.

 

On a two-party preferred vote, the polls are putting the Nationals well ahead of Labor in both electorates.

 

Since 2008 Rob Oakeshott has represented the electorate of Lyne on the New South Wales north coast with Taree and Port Macquarie being the main centres.

 

Mr Oakeshott previously represented Port Macquarie in the New South Wales parliament from 1996 to 2008.

 

When he announced his retirement last June, he claimed it wasn't because he felt he'd lose if he contested this time round.

"It's nothing about a fear of losing that would be an easy decision to bowl up and frankly get financial gain from, from that sort of decision, it's a respect of winning and whether you're really willing to commit to yourself to another three years, a hundred per cent as a member of parliament, drive to all the functions, come to family away from family."

 

A Newspoll taken in mid-August had the Coalition's primary vote in Lyne on 51 per cent - up from 34 per cent in 2010.

 

One view is that Mr Oakeshott's decision to help Labor form a minority government led to a backlash which has seen some voters who supported him as an Independent switch their allegiance to the Nationals.

 

In the town of Lake Cathie, south of Port Macquarie, Rob Oakeshott appears to have made a positive impression but so too have the Nationals.

 

Jack Jones is the Secretary of the Lake Cathie Progress Association.

 

"We've been dealing with Rob Oakeshott I guess for at least 15 years because he was state member prior to going into the federal scene and he has that entire time been very, very good to deal with."

 

Jack Jones says if the Coalition wins Lyne he expects his association will be able to have a positive working relationship with the Nationals based on how it's been treated by them in the past.

 

"We sincerely hope so and I can't see why that would not be so. We have dealt with the National party right through all the years, while they didn't hold the state seat very much it was between Oakeshott and another independent, they have helped us as much as they possibly can."

 

In the rural seat of New England, support for Tony Windsor has also dropped away with a doubling of support for the Coalition.

 

The Newspoll has the Coalition on 53 per cent, more than double the proportioni it had in 2010.

 

New England has some of Australia's best agricultural land and one of the biggest issues in the electorate is water.

 

Ildu Monticone has been an irrigator for almost 25 years in the Peel Valley district, growing mostly lucerne hay.

 

As president of the Peel Valley Waters Users Association he says he's had direct dealings with Tony Windsor and came away feeling bitterly disappointed, especially in relation to the Murray Darling Basin plan.

 

Mr Monticone says 95 per cent of the water in the Peel Valley goes to downstream users and the environment, with irrigators and Tamworth Council combined using less than 5 per cent of the water.

 

He says the association put that fact to Tony Windsor in the hope of getting his support to argue against any water cutbacks.

 

"As we already contribute more than 95 per cent we didn't see any reason why we should have any cutbacks under the Murray Darling Basin plan and we sought Tony Windsor's assistance in that and he was completely unhelpful and as a result of that we won't know until the end of 2015 whether any water will be recovered from the Peel Valley or not. Now that's meant that if anybody wants to sell their place it makes if very difficult because the purchaser doesn't know how much water they're going to get."

 

Mr Monticone says the man contesting the seat for the Nationals, retiring Senator Barnaby Joyce, has shown much more interest than Tony Windsor.

 

"We've been impressed with Barnaby Joyce's interest in the topic and he's not elected yet, the coalition aren't elected yet, so we don't know what's going to happen. But we're very hopeful that if we have him as a new member we will have much stronger representation.

 

Tony Windsor gained the seat in 2001 and previously represented the state seat of Tamworth in the New South Wales parliament.

 

The seat has existed since Federation and aside from the past 13 years it's been a stronghold for the Nationals.

 

The Coalition, and political commentators, are already counting the two seats as won for the Coalition.

 

If it's to retain government, Labor can't afford to lose seats in New South Wales, and if New England and Lyne do go as expected to the Coalition, it just makes its task all that much harder.

 

 


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