The Finance Department has warned there are "significant downside risks" to the federal government's efforts to return the budget to surplus by mid-2021.
According to freedom of information documents the ABC obtained, key risks include new drugs listed on Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme, the national disability insurance scheme and natural disaster payments to states and territories.
"Without considerable effort to reduce spending growth, it will not be possible to run underlying cash surpluses, say in the order of one per cent of (gross domestic product), without tax receipts rising above 23.9 per cent of GDP," the document said.
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