No political pot at the end of rainbow

Malcolm Turnbull might have found a way through the same-sex marriage debate, but there's no guarantee of a political payoff.

The same-sex marriage debate has been full of irony and hypocrisy.

But Malcolm Turnbull is determined to push through the mire and deliver the historic social change by the end of this year, making Australia one of almost two dozen countries to allow it.

A compulsory plebiscite, which is the federal government's preferred option, will almost certainly fail for a second time in the Senate within the next fortnight.

Then work will begin in earnest on a voluntary postal vote, with ballot papers hitting mailboxes from September 12 and due back by November 15.

Labor opposes giving Australians a say on the issue, but will find itself within this sitting fortnight having to decide whether to throw its substantial weight behind the "yes" case or back a legal challenge to the postal ballot.

Giving in to the postal ballot idea will end months of vehemently arguing against the concept of a plebiscite (despite Bill Shorten having previously supported the idea at an Australian Christian Lobby event).

But it will bring to an end the interminable debate over "how" and change the question to "why".

Labor and the Greens say the "why" debate will be harmful, particularly to young people coming to grips with the complexities of sexuality. One law firm, Maurice Blackburn, has even offered to provide pro bono advice for vilification cases

However, MPs taking a lead role in the debate could be vital to ensuring it's respectful and reaffirming.

One undermining factor in this is Turnbull's reluctance to spend too much time campaigning for the "yes" case.

As he said in Canberra on Tuesday, he has "many other calls" on his time.

Getting behind the legal challenge by human rights and pro-marriage equality campaigners could, ironically, mean bringing an end to the postal vote - or at least delaying it - and heading off the government allowing legislation to go forward by the end of the year.

Some in Labor argue the politics of this are sound. The government doesn't really want to tackle same-sex marriage and only a Labor government is truly committed to justice and fairness.

They point to hardline conservatives in the Liberal and Nationals parties who would vote against same-sex marriage even if the plebiscite comes back with a solid "yes" majority.

Labor insists there's still plenty of sitting days to bring on West Australian Liberal senator Dean Smith's private bill and vote, without a $122 million or $170 million ballot.

But that option, from the government's perspective, was killed off by the Liberal and coalition partyroom meetings this week. The vote on Senator Smith's bill instead is scheduled for the final sitting weeks of parliament for 2017, after a ballot.

For all the effort put into the debate, it's hard to see the political benefits for the prime minister.

The key positive for him is getting a long-running issue off the agenda so he can focus on jobs and the economy and shoring up his authority in the partyroom.

But on the negative side it could further erode the Liberal party's conservative support base, which hoped no change to marriage would ever occur under the stewardship of the party of Menzies and Howard.


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Source: AAP


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No political pot at the end of rainbow | SBS News