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No rate cuts, at least until next year

The cash rate is widely expected to stay unchanged after the RBA's board meeting on Tuesday, thanks to a clear hint from the Glenn Stevens.

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Source: AAP


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The Reserve Bank is chilling out on cutting the cash rate - at least until next year.

All 13 economists surveyed by AAP expect the RBA to keep the cash rate at two per cent at its December meeting on Tuesday, but six are predicting that there will a cut early in 2016.

In a speech on Tuesday, RBA governor Glenn Stevens indicated that he is is still prepared to reduce the cash rate again, if needed, after cutting it in February and May.

"I'm more than content to lower it if that actually helps, but is that the best thing to do at a particular time?" Mr Stevens told an Australian Business Economists (ABE) dinner.

"As for February, that's three months away, we've got Christmas, we should just chill out and see what the (economic) data says."

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Recent good economic data, including the unemployment rate falling to a six-month low, has caused the chances of another interest rate cut to plummet.

HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham said it was unusual for the RBA governor to be so blunt about an upcoming interest rate decision.

"One thing is clear: the RBA does not want to cut further. Otherwise, it would have done so already," he said.

Mr Bloxham said there is definitely scope for the Reserve Bank to cut again with growth at a below average pace, inflation forecast to stay low for the coming year and the unemployment rate to stay high.

"The RBA is clearly patient and has set a high bar for delivering any further stimulus," he said.

JP Morgan chief economist Stephen Walters believes the Reserve Bank won't cut again but things could change over the summer.

"Remember that officials bounded out of the blocks and eased policy at the February Board meeting, having ended 2014 similarly communicating that all was well with the world," he said.

"We don't expect similar outcomes this summer, but you never know."

Mr Walters said if the RBA does move the cash rate a cut is still much more likely than an increase.

"For now, though, we will be chilling out as instructed while, as always, being alert to unexpected developments heading into the February board meeting," he said.


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