No regime change for Iran: expert

An Egyptian-style popular uprising is unlikely in Iran because its regime enjoys better popular support and is prepared to use deadly force, an expert on the Middle East has told SBS.

Iran-protest-B-Getty_85307572
An Egyptian-style uprising is unlikely in Iran because its regime enjoys better popular support and is prepared to use deadly force, an expert on the Middle East has told SBS.

Melbourne University professor Shahram Akbarzadeh said despite their similarities, he didn't expect anti-government protests in Iran to succeed like those in Egypt and Tunisia.


"The difference is that in Egypt the security forces refrained from opening fire and killing people,” Professor Akbarzadeh, the Deputy Director at the National Centre of Excellence for Islamic Studies at the Melbourne University's Asia Institute said.

“Whereas the security forces in Iran are loyal to the regime and have no issues about using fatal force to suppress the opposition.”

Support among the Iranian people was another reason President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's regime would not be toppled soon, Professor Akbarzadeh said.

"I don't think Ahmadinejad is going to step down like Mubarak did,” he said.

"[The] regime has some degree of support among the less well-off population and those who live in the rural areas, as well as war veterans and their families, who have been given special privileges from the government in terms of access to education and jobs in public sector.”

Government rhetoric targeting political protesters in Iran has heated up, with MPs openly calling for the execution of opposition chiefs who called for recent rallies.

Mr Ahmadinejad also weighed in, saying the "enemies" who planned the anti-government protests in Tehran on Monday would fail to achieve their goals.

In a live interview on state television, Mr Ahmadinejad said: "It is evident and clear that the Iranian nation has enemies because it is a country which wants to shine and achieve its peak and wants to change relations (between countries) in the world.

"Of course there is a lot of animosity, even against the government. But they (protest planners) will not achieve their goals," he replied when asked about Monday's demonstrations in the capital.

Two people were killed in the protests and several were wounded, including nine members of security forces, officials say, as riot-police fired tear gas and paintballs at demonstrators.

Thousands of anti-government supporters chanted anti-Ahmadinejad slogans under the pretext of holding a rally in support of Arab uprisings.

The rallies turned into protests reminiscent of June 2009 demonstrations after the disputed re-election of Mr Ahmadinejad, with clashes erupting between protesters and riot-police, notably in Tehran's Azadi Square (Freedom Square).

Protesters and their leaders Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who planned Monday's rally, remain steadfast in rejecting Ahmadinejad's presidency.

The latest unrest triggered fury in Iran's conservative-dominated parliament, with MPs demanding that Mousavi and Karroubi be executed.

Mohammad Khatami, a former reformist president, also came under fire from conservatives for openly backing the opposition movement since the disputed presidential election.

"Mousavi and Karroubi should be executed! Death to Mousavi, Karroubi and Khatami!" MPs shouted in the house, state news agency IRNA reported.

They said the United States, Britain and Israel had orchestrated the protests through the opposition leaders, who, according to parliament speaker Ali Larijani, were being "misled" by Iran's arch-foes.

US President Barack Obama defended the protesters and criticised the Iranian authorities, saying that unlike Egypt, Iran's response to protests has been "to shoot people and beat people and arrest people."

"And, you know, my hope and expectation is that we're going to continue to see the people of Iran have the courage to be able to express their yearning for greater freedoms and a more representative government," Mr Obama said.

An unfazed Mr Ahmadinejad criticised those who planned the protests.

"They want to dampen the brilliance of the Iranian nation. But it is a shining sun... they want to throw dirt at the sun," he said, referring to both opposition leaders and the West.

"But it (the dirt) falls back in their faces. I don't want to talk about ignorant people. I address those who design and plan these things. They are the people who will see the dirt fall on their faces."


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Source: AFP, SBS



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