Not doing too bad for an 'old economy'

Australia is enjoying a record run of unprecedented economic growth after navigating a volatile global economy on more than one occasion in the past 25 years.

At the turn of the century Australia was derided as an 'old economy' by international investors.

It had failed to attract the investment bounce generated by the global phenomena of the dot.com boom.

Australia was still perceived to be "riding the sheep's back" and digging holes in the ground - rather than making computer chips - for its wealth.

That simplistic thinking fell flat on its face when the dot.com bubble burst, sending the US economy reeling into recession and dragging others with it. But not Australia.

It's one chapter of a remarkable, recession-free journey Australia has travelled for more than a quarter of a century.

Since Paul Keating's 'recession we have to have' in 1991, the economy has steered itself through the Asian financial crisis in the late 1990's and the global financial crisis which came to a head in late 2008 that morphed into the worst worldwide downturn since the Great Depression.

While enjoying the 'rivers of gold' from a massive mining boom through the urbanisation of China, it hasn't been all plain sailing.

While a recession is considered as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, there have been four separate occasions when there has been a quarter of economic contraction.

These came after the introduction of the GST in 2000, the initial shock to the GFC in late 2008, and the accumulation of a series of natural disasters in early 2011 - Cyclone Yasi and the Queensland floods, along with the trade disruption from earthquakes in neighbouring New Zealand and Japan.

The most recent contraction in September 2016 was again weather-related.

Treasury Secretary John Fraser told a Senate hearing this week Cyclone Debbie will also have had further impact on the economy in the June quarter.

"On top of the loss of life and property destruction ... there has been an impact on mining, agricultural and tourism industries in Queensland and northern New South Wales," he said.

That was expected to reduce GDP growth by about a quarter of a percentage point, slowing the annual rate of growth to 1.75 per cent for this financial year.

It was running at 2.4 per cent as of December, still below the near three per cent rate associated with strong employment growth.

Treasury expects growth to rebound to 2.75 per cent in 2017/18 and three per cent in 2018/19 as the drag from waning mining investment diminishes, household consumption improves and exports continue to grow strongly.

However, next Wednesday's national accounts for the March quarter are also shaping as a subdued affair.

Retail spending grew by just 0.1 per cent in the March quarter which economists expect is the result of wages growth remaining at record lows.

Other released figures show construction work in the first three months of the year was also weak, while business investment showed only modest growth.

There are several other inputs to GDP due to early next week - company profits, government spending and the balance of payments - for economists to finalise their growth predictions.

Treasurer Scott Morrison is confident Australia can continue its "golden run" of economic growth.

"As our global peers have struggled, we have stayed the course and locked in growth, defying stubborn headwinds and punching above our weight, as is our custom," he told a conference on Thursday.

More an economic battler than an old one.


Share
4 min read

Published

Source: AAP


Share this with family and friends


Get SBS News daily and direct to your Inbox

Sign up now for the latest news from Australia and around the world direct to your inbox.

By subscribing, you agree to SBS’s terms of service and privacy policy including receiving email updates from SBS.

Download our apps
SBS News
SBS Audio
SBS On Demand

Listen to our podcasts
An overview of the day's top stories from SBS News
Interviews and feature reports from SBS News
Your daily ten minute finance and business news wrap with SBS Finance Editor Ricardo Gonçalves.
A daily five minute news wrap for English learners and people with disability
Get the latest with our News podcasts on your favourite podcast apps.

Watch on SBS
SBS World News

SBS World News

Take a global view with Australia's most comprehensive world news service
Watch the latest news videos from Australia and across the world