Dogged by his decision to ban greyhound racing, NSW Premier Mike Baird will face his most critical test on the divisive issue at this weekend's Orange by-election.
The contest for the central-west electorate - held by the Nationals on a 21.7 per cent margin - is shaping up to be a litmus test on Mr Baird's spectacular backflip on the ban amid growing anger from the community and within his own ranks.
Eight hopefuls are contesting the seat vacated by Nationals MP Andrew Gee, who resigned to run for federal parliament.
Labor and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers (SFF) party both believe they'll be able to snatch the seat held by the Nationals since 1947.
"I'm quietly confident we can win it," SFF candidate Phil Donato told AAP.
"The greyhounds and forced council amalgamations issues have really left people feeling let down and abandoned."
Donald Trump's surprising US election win this week should also serve as an omen, the former police prosecutor said.
"What happened in America or even the rise of a lot of these minor parties... people are getting fed up with the major parties," he said.
Mr Donato also shot down claims of an apparent Labor-Shooters preference deal, saying "we're not here to help Labor win the seat".
Internal Labor polling last week had the Nationals at 39 per cent, the Shooters at 18 per cent and Labor at 19 per cent.
The greyhounds ban reversal had failed to win back support for the coalition in the electorate, Labor candidate Bernard Fitzsimon says.
Nationals candidate Scott Barrett, who has been vocal in his opposition to the greyhound ban policy, admits he's feeling the pressure.
"But the reception I've received from constituents has been really positive and the support has been humbling," he told AAP.
The by-election comes at a time when the Baird government's popularity is already waning over several issues including its so-called lockout laws, Sydney's WestConnex motorway or recent changes to land management legislation.
In two other by-elections on November 12, Labor will fight to retain the seat of Wollongong left vacant after long-time MP Noreen Hay controversially quit earlier this year.
The ALP is expected to win the seat despite a likely swing against it in favour of independent Lord Mayor Gordon Bradbery.
Upper house MP Sophie Costis is also expected to retain the safe-Labor seat of Canterbury, prompted by former deputy leader Linda Burney's switch to federal politics.
The Liberals won't be contesting either Wollongong or Canterbury.
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