A new nuclear arms race could be beginning due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine — one not defined by big submarines or loud missiles, but by small, silent drones.
This was addressed by Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his speech at the United Nations General Assembly, where he warned that it is cheaper to stop Russia now "than wondering who will be the first to create a simple drone carrying a nuclear warhead".
"We must use everything we have, together, to force the aggressor to stop. And only then do we have a real chance that this arms race won’t end in catastrophe for all of us," he said.
"Otherwise, Putin will keep driving the war forward — wider and deeper."
A 'potential' new arms race
Experts warn that drones carrying nuclear weapons might already exist.
TASS, the Russian state-owned news agency, reported in 2023 on the manufacture of a nuclear-armed underwater drone called Poseidon.
Previously, in 2018, the US defence ministry also publicly acknowledged that Russia was developing a "new intercontinental, nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered, undersea autonomous torpedo" or underwater drone.
Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army major general and senior fellow for military studies at the Lowy Institute, said drones with nuclear warheads "may already be a reality".
"It's something that we should be concerned about," Ryan, who is also a strategic advisor at a US drone company, Skydio, told SBS News.
"Particularly since detecting a drone underwater that's capable of very long ranges would be a significant threat to Western countries, including Australia."
Russia is not the only country with concerns over the use of nuclear warheads on its underwater drones.
Recently, China has reportedly moved two underwater drones for testing in the South China Sea.
"These are much larger than the underwater systems that Australia and America are testing ... and these systems could well, in the future, be armed with nuclear weapons as well," Ryan said.
Ryan said that the introduction of these drones can "potentially" lead to a new nuclear arms race in the world — a competition between countries to develop powerful nuclear weapons and delivery systems.
"Arms races are a constant thing ... It's not something the population sees every day, but it is going on every day," he said.
"Every country is trying to ensure that it has a quantitative advantage over anyone that might be aggressive towards it. Drones are just part of that ongoing race to ensure that we have better technologies and more of them than those who might threaten us."
Almost 'no humans involved'
Nuclear warheads are not the only possible future predicted for drones, as politicians are warning about the use of artificial intelligence (AI) to control drones.
During his speech at the UN, Zelenskyy said that "it's only a matter of time" before drones operate "all by themselves, fully autonomous, and no human involved, except the few who control AI systems".
Earlier in September, The Wall Street Journal reported that AI-powered drones were introduced on the battlefield, with Ukraine utilising technology that allows groups of drones to make decisions independently.
Ryan said the use of AI might actually help reduce civilian casualties in future warfare.
"AI might actually make them more deadly for the military and less deadly for civilians. Now, that's a perfect scenario, of course, and it's theoretical," he said.
On the other hand, there are concerns about AI gaining access to nuclear weapons.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong told the UN on Thursday that "AI’s potential use in nuclear weapons and unmanned systems challenges the future of humanity."
She said, "Decisions of life and death must never be delegated to machines," and offered to other leaders to set rules and standards on the use of AI.
Some others have also expressed concerns about ethical and regulatory challenges related to autonomous drones.
Ryan said: "If you have AI controlling a drone that has a nuclear weapon, we should be very concerned about that.
"I think AI for conventional weapons and AI for nuclear weapons are two very different conversations with two very different forms of risk."
Changes in warfare
Even without the use of nuclear warheads and AIs in drones, the shape of warfare has changed since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
And that is partly just because of drones.
Oleksandra Molloy, a drone warfare expert and a senior lecturer in aviation at the University of New South Wales, says the number of drones used and made by Ukraine and Russia has risen from "a few thousand" to "millions".
In April, Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that Russia had produced more than 1.5 million drones the previous year, while The New York Times reported that the Russian government's target for drone production is between 3 and 5 million.
The Ukrainian government has also targeted the production of 4.5 million drones.
The number of drones used and made by Ukraine and Russia has risen from "a few thousand" to "millions" since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion in 2022. Source: Getty / Scott Peterson
"But now they are the most effective system that can be used at different distances."
Since October 2022, the first recorded drone attack of the invasion, Russia has attacked Ukrainian cities and infrastructure multiple times.
Russia's largest aerial strike on Ukraine happened earlier in September, with Ukrainian officials reporting 810 drones and decoys targeting Kyiv.
Ukraine has also responded to the invasion with drone attacks in Russia.
Operation Spiderweb was among Ukraine's most known attacks, which was launched by its security service inside Russia in June, targeting Russian airbases. The 117 drones used in this operation had a payload of just over 3.7 kilograms.
"The kill zone, the frontline is really just expanding in terms of the distance and the way where drones can fly," Molloy said.
"In broader terms, they really have shown that the asymmetry effect: a couple of hundred-dollar drone can destroy multimillion-dollar tanks or even strike and shut down the fighter jet."
Building walls in the sky
The risk of drones, however, has not been limited only to the war zones, with a series of drone incursions being seen in Europe recently.
On Saturday, drones were seen near military facilities in Denmark, after drones were seen over Danish airports. There were also reports of drone observation in Germany, Norway and Lithuania.
Danish defence minister Troels Lund Poulsen defined the incident as "systematic" and as a "hybrid attack".
The Russian government has dismissed any claims of involvement in the drone incidents.
Location of drone incursions seen in Denmark Credit: SBS
On Saturday, the European Union formally announced that to defend against incursions, it will focus on developing a drone wall system in its eastern defences.
It is still unknown how long building a drone wall will take.
Molloy said that the idea behind the drone wall "originated from Ukraine, which has integrated a drone wall in their operations".
"It's a system that can detect and then destroy [drones] over a specific distance within the needs and is provided and supported by the elite drone units ... There is a lot of time and resources and expertise have been spent to develop this," she said.
"The only concern really is time. And it's quite critical to have these systems in place.
"The drones are the threat of today and will remain the threat of tomorrow. Definitely, no country can afford to ignore this threat and has to take action at different levels ... [and] learn from the partners, including Ukraine, who are at the forefront of developing these systems in modern warfare."
