Obstacles loom in run-in to NRL finals

In the run to the NRL finals, the top four looks just about set while seven teams have realistic ambitions for the four remaining berths.

State of Origin is out of the way and the byes have all been used up. Now it's time for the NRL to get down to business in the run to the finals.

The top four looks just about set with only the final order to be determined while seven teams have realistic ambitions for the four remaining finals berths.

Brisbane, North Queensland, St George Illawarra and West Tigers would all need a miracle to get there.

Here's how the run home shapes up (teams listed in current ladder order):-

RABBITOHS

The opening 19 rounds have given plenty of hope, but the injury loss of Greg Inglis for an extended period has come at a bad time. Over the next four weeks, they play on the Gold Coast, in Townsville, Melbourne and Gosford. Then there's the last-round blockbuster against the Roosters. With or without Inglis, the run home could make or break Souths' season.

Crunch game: v Roosters rd 26 - could well decide minor premiership

Predicted finish: 1st, 42 pts

ROOSTERS

Haven't really had a real lapse this year, and it's unlikely to come in a fairly easy run into the finals. Play just one top-six side before the last-round meeting with Souths, and that's Newcastle on Sunday. Five of their last seven are on the road but, unlike all the interstate travel the Bunnies have to do, the Roosters won't leave NSW before the finals.

Crunch game: v Rabbitohs rd 26 - they might not be able to fit them all into ANZ Stadium if top spot is on the line

Predicted finish - 2nd, 40pts

MELBOURNE

Face a tough stretch over the next three weeks, which includes visits to bogey sides the Warriors and Canberra. That's followed by a blockbuster home game against the Bunnies, who could have Greg Inglis back by them. A top-four berth looks assured, which might allow coach Craig Bellamy a chance to rest his 'big three'.

Crunch game: v Manly rd 25 - an epic Brookvale Oval clash which might decide whether the teams finish third of fourth

Predicted finish - 4th, 37pts

MANLY

Fairly friendly run home other than two blockbusters against Souths and Melbourne. Have a chance over the next three weeks to run into a bit of form against the Tigers, Eels and Warriors at Brookvale. Trip to Canberra shapes as a potential banana skin.

Crunch game: v Souths rd 23 - bizarrely scheduled for Bluetongue Stadium in Gosford, Manly could send a real message with a win here.

Predicted finish - 3rd, 37pts

NEWCASTLE

Riding a three-game winning streak, but Sunday's game against the Roosters is a real litmus test. A win there and a bit of confidence and the Knights could hang onto fifth spot, with the struggling Eels and Broncos (twice) on their radar. Face trips to Townsville and Brisbane on consecutive weekends.

Crunch game: v Roosters rd 20 - a win in this home game could set up their run to the finals

Predicted finish - 7th, 28pts

CANTERBURY

Timing their run perfectly, with just one game remaining (v Souths rd 24) against a side currently in the top seven. The trip to Canberra (rd 23) is never easy, but there's plenty of opportunities for the 'Dogs to build some momentum, with games against the struggling Dragons, Eels and Titans over the next three weeks.

Crunch game: v Raiders rd 23. A win here could be the difference between fifth or sixth.

Predicted finish - 6th, 30pts

CRONULLA

The Roosters and Raiders are their only top-eight opponents in the run home, but Cronulla's biggest obstacles remain off the field as they continue to deal with the ASADA investigation. Three of their last five games are at home, and they need all the support they can get if times get tough.

Crunch game: v Canberra rd 26. If the Raiders are still alive, this game could be the difference between being home or away in week one of the finals.

Predicted finish - 5th 32pts

CANBERRA

Four of their last seven are at home, where they are unbeaten in 2013, but that only tells half the story. After Sunday's meeting with the Dragons, they have a four-week stretch against teams in the top six, while they finish off at home against the seventh-placed Sharks. If they can remain unbeaten at home, they will make the eight, but that's a tough ask.

Crunch game: v Bulldogs rd 23. Could make or break their finals dream, with both sides likely to be desperate.

Predicted finish - 10th, 26pts

PENRITH

Next fortnight could determine their finals fate, with the Sharks and Roosters on the horizon. Win both of them and they can almost start planning for September action, though a last-round trip to Brookvale is a tough way to finish.

Predicted finish - 11th, 24pts

GOLD COAST

Face a tough ask to break into the top eight, with games against the top three teams including a nightmare finish of away trips to the Roosters and Melbourne. Four of their last five are away from home, so getting the minimum four wins that they need will be a tall order.

Crunch game: v Bulldogs rd 22. If they can get away with one over the 'Dogs, they might just do enough to sneak in.

Predicted finish - 9th, 26pts

WARRIORS

Four of their last seven games are at home where they are tough to beat, but the Warriors will need to find some consistency on the road to make the eight. Away games against the Titans and Dragons should be gettable if they really are a top-eight side.

Predicted finish - 8th, 28pts

BRISBANE

Predicted finish - 14th, 20pts

NORTH QUEENSLAND

Predicted finish - 12th, 24pts

ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA

Predicted finish - 13th, 22pts

WESTS TIGERS

Predicted finish - 15th, 16pts

Mathematically, all of the last four sides are still in the hunt, but four points behind the 11th-placed Warriors means they have to win just about every game to make it. Six from seven would give them 28 points, which might be enough, but it must be remembered that these sides have all won just six games all year to date.

PARRAMATTA

Rebuilding for next year and have won only three games.

Predicted finish - 16th, 12pts


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Source: AAP


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