The Reserve Bank likes to make moves on Melbourne Cup day, but this year the central bank is tipped to stay in the stalls.
Only three of the 13 economists surveyed by AAP expect a rate cut at the RBA's November board meeting, despite market pricing indicating the decision will be close to a coin toss.
The RBA has moved the cash rate, either up or down, at six of its last nine November meetings.
But the last Melbourne Cup day move was in 2011, and TD Securities head of Asia-Pacific research Annette Beacher says November interest rate hikes by the big four banks won't be enough to force the RBA's hand.
"We don't expect the RBA to bend to current market pressure to capitulate and endlessly prop up the housing sector, since that is the only sector that has responded to lower interest rates in the last two years," she said.
JP Morgan economist Ben Jarman said markets expect the RBA follow a number of other central banks that have flagged future easing or have slashed rates in the past fortnight.
"People are harking back to what happened earlier this year, where there was a wave of central banks easing globally and the RBA ended up following suit in February," he said.
"But we think there's a few differences this time around."
When the RBA cut in February and May, taking the cash rate to its current record low of 2.0 per cent, the central bank had also lowered its inflation and economic growth forecasts.
"This time around they don't have that growth forecast downgrade trigger," Mr Jarman said.
"And when they're not doing that there's usually scope to leave inflation untouched as well."
But HSBC Australia chief economist Paul Bloxham said the September quarter's weaker than expected inflation and home loan rate hikes will be enough to push the RBA over the line.
Inflation stands at 1.5 per cent and has now been below the RBA's target band of two to three per cent for a year.
"It tells you demand is growing more slowly than supply," Mr Bloxham said.
But he admits it is a close call.
"Growth is lifting, the economy is rebalancing, business conditions are improving and the unemployment rate has been steady," Mr Bloxham said.
"The path of least regret for the RBA may be to deliver further stimulus rather than sit still."
